Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:18:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2B 0x2ba2…c799 politics 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$62 (-0%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate12%17W / 123L
Whale WR7%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$14
politics 37% −$17
sports 11% −$32
tech 5% −$2
economics 3% −$1
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 89 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 140 -4.5% -13.6% 12% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 6% -9.7%
10% -21.8% 4% -18.3%
15% -29.4% 2% -26.2%
20% -36.3% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 7% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses17 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)7%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)140 / 143
History coverage135d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 21 $22 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $287 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $24 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $494 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 08 $38 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $703 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 28 $237 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $701 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $213 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $841 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $193 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $199 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $267 $0 -0%
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 12 $262 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $256 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $205 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $227 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $210 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $190 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $794 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $207 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $206 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 03 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $213 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $231 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $243 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $248 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $255 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $204 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $499 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $208 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $234 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $237 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 21 $456 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $236 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $282 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $216 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $38 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $43 4d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 4d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 5d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 5d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 6d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 6d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $44 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $44 7d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 7d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 12d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 12d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 13d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 15d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 16d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 16d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 16d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $27 18d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 18d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 19d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 21d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 28d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 28d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $263 28d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $263 30d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $237 30d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $237 30d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $221 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.27 · official $109.27 (match) · 427 history records