Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:46:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2B 0x2ba1…b0b6 crypto 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (97 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7,150 (-24%) realized −$7,157 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate48%29W / 32L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$478per market
Trades / day97.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 35d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$135
crypto 32% −$780
sports 15% +$205
other 8% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (97 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -12.3% -20.7% 55% 16% -12.9%
≤30d 39 -9.9% -18.5% 49% 15% -11.1%
≤90d 61 -8.1% -16.9% 48% 16% -11.5%
all 61 -8.1% -16.9% 48% 16% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover97.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 16% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 5% -20.0%
15% -32.1% 3% -27.7%
20% -38.8% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
31.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$54 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$296
Realized−$7,157
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses29 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$478
Trades / day97.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx Minnesota Lynx 85¢ 87¢ $289 $296 +$7 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $314 +$27 +8%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $412 +$30 +7%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $308 +$87 +28%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $552 +$95 +17%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $407 +$174 +43%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $403 +$145 +36%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $420 +$31 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET Jun 20 $302 −$25 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET Jun 20 $425 −$124 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5PM ET Jun 20 $38 −$28 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET Jun 20 $68 −$48 -71%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag Jun 20 $142 −$142 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $331 −$331 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Sofia J Jun 20 $219 +$22 +10%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert Jun 20 $188 +$12 +6%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $274 +$27 +10%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart Jun 20 $138 +$22 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7PM ET Jun 19 $132 −$20 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET Jun 19 $106 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET Jun 19 $120 −$63 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET Jun 19 $504 +$51 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET Jun 19 $192 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET Jun 19 $804 −$143 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10PM ET Jun 19 $82 −$18 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET Jun 19 $709 −$60 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7PM ET Jun 19 $491 −$46 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET Jun 18 $282 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET Jun 18 $78 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $237 −$7 -3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 31 $1,088 +$11 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 29 $2,036 $0 -0%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 29 $834 −$97 -12%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 29 $832 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $721 −$3 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $3,021 −$136 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $4,886 −$20 -0%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? May 25 $1,541 +$163 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $1,606 +$13 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 19 $151 −$52 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 19 $249 −$50 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 19 $183 −$111 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 18 $223 +$34 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 18 $87 +$17 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 18 $118 −$12 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 18 $207 −$12 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 18 $267 +$36 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 18 $145 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 18 $78 −$2 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 84¢ $15 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 85¢ $118 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 85¢ $39 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 85¢ $38 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 85¢ $39 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 85¢ $39 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 94¢ $152 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 94¢ $167 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 94¢ $16 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 90¢ $69 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 90¢ $9 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 92¢ $314 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 78¢ $1 6h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 78¢ $16 6h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 78¢ $234 6h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 78¢ $5 6h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 78¢ $23 6h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 78¢ $5 6h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 78¢ $24 6h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 89¢ $214 19h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 83¢ $313 19h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 83¢ $25 19h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 70¢ $229 25h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 70¢ $14 25h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 70¢ $140 25h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 70¢ $11 25h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 70¢ $5 25h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 70¢ $2 25h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 70¢ $6 25h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 73¢ $403 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $295.80 · official $295.80 (match) · 3500 history records