Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:10:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2B
0x2b9d…74f5
sports · 133 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$30,120 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$31,253 · open −$500
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$38,664
Realized−$31,253
Unrealized−$500
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses36 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$221
Open positions39
Markets (closed)94 / 133
History coverage47d
Avg bet$1,849
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 39 History 94 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39,389
7 days−$36,120
14 days−$33,884
30 days−$30,477
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 69¢ 80¢ $11,150 $13,012 +$1,862 (+17%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 58¢ 56¢ $11,593 $11,122 −$471 (-4%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $2,495 $2,770 +$274 (+11%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 77¢ $1,500 $2,304 +$804 (+54%)
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? No 77¢ 75¢ $1,426 $1,385 −$41 (-3%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 13¢ 42¢ $400 $1,308 +$908 (+227%)
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? No 63¢ 58¢ $1,209 $1,131 −$78 (-6%)
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 84¢ 91¢ $731 $791 +$60 (+8%)
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? No 70¢ 84¢ $630 $756 +$127 (+20%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 23¢ $1,500 $696 −$804 (-54%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $692 $690 −$2 (-0%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 23¢ 26¢ $397 $467 +$70 (+18%)
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Yes 11¢ 23¢ $141 $298 +$158 (+112%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 70¢ 57¢ $362 $296 −$66 (-18%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 63¢ 74¢ $224 $265 +$41 (+18%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $274 $236 −$38 (-14%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 35¢ 34¢ $226 $216 −$9 (-4%)
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in June? Yes 48¢ 81¢ $103 $174 +$71 (+68%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1,687 $142 −$1,545 (-92%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 8¢ 8¢ $150 $141 −$9 (-6%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 57¢ $127 $131 +$5 (+4%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $73 $65 −$8 (-12%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 68¢ 98¢ $43 $62 +$19 (+45%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $912 $50 −$862 (-95%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $12,588 +$874 +7%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in May? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Meta’s Q1 headcount be above 78000? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Jun 11 $56 −$26 -46%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in April? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in April? Jun 11 $33 −$33 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
T20 Series Germany vs Austria: Germany vs Austria Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Mike Thurmond win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary el Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-Jun Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i Jun 11 $30 −$15 -51%
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listene Jun 11 $283 −$250 -88%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 11 $793 +$112 +14%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.5% in April? Jun 11 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Jun 11 $1,952 −$20 -1%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 11 $123 −$123 -100%
Will "Running Point: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Jun 11 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in Jun 11 $417 −$417 -100%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 11 $122 −$122 -100%
Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Au Jun 11 $485 −$485 -100%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 11 $1,017 −$929 -91%
Will Rhoda Magbitang win Top Chef Season 23? Jun 11 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 11 $626 −$626 -100%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 11 $608 −$608 -100%
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listene Jun 11 $603 −$603 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers Jun 11 $216 −$216 -100%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? Jun 11 $2,334 −$1,146 -49%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 11 $4,313 −$3,109 -72%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jun 11 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Jun 11 $1,114 −$1,114 -100%
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? Jun 11 $1,573 −$1,573 -100%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Jun 11 $9,408 −$9,408 -100%
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this we Jun 11 $9,168 −$8,963 -98%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this Jun 11 $9,986 −$9,943 -100%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 11 $2,826 −$185 -7%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 10 $2,644 +$1,210 +46%
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% or less in May? Jun 10 $117 +$6 +5%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in May? Jun 10 $50 −$29 -58%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 09 $73 −$4 -5%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 08 $266 +$2,187 +822%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 52% +$1,379
other 14% −$13,053
world 11% +$2,185
culture 9% −$20,900
sports 8% +$393
tech 3% +$1,622
economics 3% −$3,686
weather 0% +$306
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY No 58¢ $123 0m
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY No 75¢ $152 1h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 55¢ $3 1h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY No 58¢ $3 2h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $8 2h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY No 73¢ $4 2h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY No 73¢ $24 2h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY No 73¢ $62 2h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY No 58¢ $21 2h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY No 59¢ $393 2h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY No 74¢ $276 2h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY No 74¢ $57 2h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY No 74¢ $113 2h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY No 74¢ $30 2h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY No 59¢ $302 2h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY No 73¢ $370 2h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 2h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 55¢ $122 3h
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 3h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 21¢ $181 4h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY No 58¢ $3 4h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY No 61¢ $9 7h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY No 83¢ $151 7h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 24¢ $216 8h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $0 8h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $2 9h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 9h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 9h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-37.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -60.4% -64.2% 12% 8% -59.9%
≤30d 81 -36.9% -42.9% 35% 23% -25.5%
≤90d 94 -30.8% -37.4% 38% 26% -24.8%
all 94 -30.8% -37.4% 38% 26% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.4% 26% -24.8%
10% -43.4% 17% -32.0%
15% ← realistic here -48.9% 10% -38.6%
20% -53.9% 7% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38,663.65 · official $38,662.70 (match) · 1498 history records