Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:30:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2B 0x2b9d…adc0 politics 244 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 107d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$37,555 (+16%) realized +$29,127 · open +$8,428
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate51%110W / 107L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$987per market
Trades / day30.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$43,876now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,086
7 days+$5,479
14 days+$8,382
30 days+$25,194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 61% +$34,832
world 21% +$6,223
other 7% +$7,850
tech 4% −$934
finance 4% +$289
culture 1% −$1,224
crypto 1% +$144
sports 0% +$194
economics 0% −$176
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -48.4% -53.3% 17% 15% -0.6%
≤30d 82 -18.1% -25.9% 30% 27% +20.5%
≤90d 176 +8.8% -1.5% 55% 40% +15.4%
all 217 +3.0% -6.8% 51% 36% +11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 36% +11.8%
10% -15.7% 29% +1.1%
15% ← realistic here -23.9% 25% -8.7%
20% -31.3% 20% -17.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$1,022) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$636 vs −$291 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$43,876
Realized+$29,127
Unrealized+$8,428
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses110 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions27
Markets (closed)217 / 244
History coverage108d ⚠
Avg bet$987
Trades / day30.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 45¢ 99¢ $4,250 $9,398 +$5,148 (+121%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 85¢ 99¢ $5,405 $6,287 +$882 (+16%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? No 40¢ 99¢ $2,479 $6,157 +$3,678 (+148%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 80¢ 99¢ $4,425 $5,485 +$1,059 (+24%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? No 48¢ 72¢ $3,328 $4,993 +$1,664 (+50%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 94¢ 97¢ $3,074 $3,189 +$115 (+4%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 5–10%? Yes 79¢ 96¢ $2,427 $2,949 +$521 (+21%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 73¢ 99¢ $1,258 $1,709 +$451 (+36%)
Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 100,000 and 110,000 voters? Yes 66¢ 99¢ $593 $891 +$298 (+50%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $911 $671 −$241 (-26%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? No 88¢ 100¢ $420 $473 +$53 (+13%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 11¢ 6¢ $696 $395 −$302 (-43%)
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $336 $336 +$0 (+0%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $636 $200 −$436 (-69%)
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 38¢ 24¢ $309 $188 −$120 (-39%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 52¢ 4¢ $2,511 $183 −$2,328 (-93%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%? Yes 35¢ 99¢ $46 $130 +$84 (+183%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $111 $113 +$2 (+1%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%? Yes 19¢ 2¢ $663 $76 −$587 (-88%)
Will Spencer Pratt call for 1st round recount? No 68¢ 91¢ $27 $36 +$9 (+34%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 10–15%? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $73 $11 −$62 (-85%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $103 $3 −$101 (-97%)
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $89 $3 −$87 (-97%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $1,102 $2 −$1,100 (-100%)
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$31 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $4,268 +$4,833 +113%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $1,489 +$2,437 +164%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $3,773 +$2,222 +59%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $1,431 −$954 -67%
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary elect Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 900 council seat elections in Jun 22 $143 −$143 -100%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the Jun 22 $143 −$143 -100%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 22 $166 −$166 -100%
Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Zoë Garbett win the 2026 London Borough of Hackney mayoral electi Jun 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? Jun 22 $532 −$145 -27%
Will Juntos por el Perú (JP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian S Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 22 $1,903 −$546 -29%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 30, 2026? Jun 22 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Burt Jones finish first in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Go Jun 22 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in second place in the first round of the 2 Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 22 $1,023 −$310 -30%
Will Caroline Woodley win the 2026 London Borough of Hackney mayoral e Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamb Jun 22 $71 −$15 -21%
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? Jun 22 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elec Jun 22 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Liam Shrivastava win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr Jun 22 $357 −$357 -100%
Will Doug Turner win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary e Jun 22 $457 −$457 -100%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Jun 22 $4,027 −$533 -13%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Jun 22 $477 −$477 -100%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Jun 22 $39 −$39 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Jun 22 $960 −$283 -30%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 22 $738 −$474 -64%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 22 $189 −$189 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Jun 22 $1,080 −$1,080 -100%
Will Alan Wilson win the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Govern Jun 22 $459 −$349 -76%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 22 $255 −$255 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $380 −$380 -100%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Jun 22 $1,768 −$429 -24%
Will Paloma Valencia place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 22 $428 −$428 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 22 $791 −$791 -100%
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary ele Jun 22 $323 −$323 -100%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first round of the 2 Jun 22 $193 +$13 +7%
Will Juntos por el Perú (JP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian C Jun 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Jun 22 $439 +$175 +40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? Jun 22 $474 −$474 -100%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 22 $442 −$124 -28%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%? Jun 22 $1,333 −$1,333 -100%
Will the Green Party win control of the most London borough councils? Jun 22 $723 −$528 -73%
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Jun 22 $3,282 −$2,365 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 25m
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 78¢ $6,502 3h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 78¢ $5 4h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 78¢ $2 4h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 4h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 78¢ $1 4h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 4h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 78¢ $390 4h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 4h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 4h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 78¢ $10 4h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 4h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 4h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 4h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 78¢ $6 4h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 78¢ $4 4h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 78¢ $4 4h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 78¢ $5 4h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 78¢ $2 5h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 78¢ $4 5h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 78¢ $8 5h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 78¢ $24 5h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 5h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 78¢ $2 6h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 78¢ $32 6h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 78¢ $8 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43,875.66 · official $43,875.45 (match) · 3500 history records