Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:13:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2B 0x2b9d…fa43 crypto 246 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$47 (+3%) realized +$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%107W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days+$80
14 days+$117
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$20
other 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 +3.6% -6.3% 39% 39% +1.9%
≤30d 246 +1.9% -7.8% 43% 43% -7.9%
≤90d 246 +1.9% -7.8% 43% 43% -7.9%
all 246 +1.9% -7.8% 43% 43% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 43% -7.9%
10% -16.7% 43% -16.7%
15% -24.7% 43% -24.7%
20% -32.1% 41% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses107 / 139
Open positions0
Markets (closed)246 / 246
History coverage17d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 246 Trades
no open positions (136 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$9 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$18 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$21 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$21 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$23 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$18 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$18 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$21 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$25 +490%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$19 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$18 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$11 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$15 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$14 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$19 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$17 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $8 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $12 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $4 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $12 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $4 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $7 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $9 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $11 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $12 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $7 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $0 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 447 history records