Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b9c…a518 sports 196 markets active 2h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,435 (-14%) realized −$12,966 · open +$531
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%83W / 108L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$438per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$1,273est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2,895now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$127
7 days−$327
14 days−$467
30 days−$9,565
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$12,508
other 2% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +6.4% -3.8% 67% 67% -21.9%
≤30d 149 -16.8% -24.7% 43% 42% -23.0%
≤90d 191 -16.4% -24.3% 43% 42% -23.8%
all 191 -16.4% -24.3% 43% 42% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 42% -23.8%
10% -31.6% 42% -31.1%
15% -38.2% 40% -37.7%
20% -44.2% 31% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$545) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$363 vs −$400 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$2,895
Realized−$12,966
Unrealized+$531
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses83 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$1,273
Open positions5
Markets (closed)191 / 196
History coverage39d
Avg bet$438
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Esport Academy Copenhagen 31¢ 100¢ $310 $999 +$689 (+222%)
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group B ECHO 60¢ 73¢ $607 $739 +$132 (+22%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B OG 52¢ 52¢ $625 $619 −$6 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A 9INE 48¢ 48¢ $541 $537 −$4 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Group A AM Gaming 28¢ $280 $0 −$279 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 105 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) Jun 21 $503 +$428 +85%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $175 +$45 +26%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $600 −$600 -100%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 18 $538 −$534 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $372 +$167 +45%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $202 +$167 +83%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $391 −$390 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $490 −$490 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $465 −$458 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $359 +$187 +52%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $670 +$330 +49%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $445 −$437 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,282 +$623 +49%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $135 +$77 +57%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $686 −$679 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $354 −$347 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $731 −$722 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $566 +$963 +170%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,272 −$259 -20%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $422 −$418 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $535 +$479 +90%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $394 +$367 +93%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $120 −$118 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $243 +$265 +109%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $285 +$740 +260%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $467 −$462 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $273 −$269 -98%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 12 $534 +$222 +42%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $224 +$287 +128%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 11 $498 +$260 +52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $112 −$109 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $154 −$151 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $483 −$478 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $505 +$510 +101%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $341 −$336 -98%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 11 $392 +$178 +46%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $275 +$623 +226%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $469 −$469 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $395 +$336 +85%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 08 $394 −$394 -100%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 08 $268 −$264 -99%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C Jun 08 $472 +$277 +59%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $155 −$155 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $270 −$270 -100%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif Jun 07 $283 +$224 +79%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Grou Jun 07 $404 +$299 +74%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $369 −$364 -99%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 07 $243 −$239 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 07 $172 −$168 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $525 +$490 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 47¢ $62 2h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY OG 52¢ $107 2h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group BUY ECHO 60¢ $615 2h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 31¢ $49 8h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 31¢ $100 8h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 31¢ $2 9h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 31¢ $0 9h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 31¢ $0 9h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Gro BUY AM Gaming 28¢ $27 11h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 31¢ $2 12h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 31¢ $20 12h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Gro BUY AM Gaming 28¢ $37 12h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY OG 52¢ $15 14h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY OG 52¢ $15 14h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY OG 52¢ $3 14h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY OG 52¢ $182 14h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY OG 52¢ $5 14h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY OG 52¢ $15 14h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY OG 52¢ $29 14h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY OG 52¢ $22 14h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY OG 52¢ $3 14h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY OG 52¢ $3 14h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY OG 52¢ $180 14h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Gro BUY AM Gaming 28¢ $0 15h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY OG 52¢ $32 15h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY OG 52¢ $16 15h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY OG 52¢ $1 15h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Gro BUY AM Gaming 28¢ $18 15h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Gro BUY AM Gaming 28¢ $1 15h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 48¢ $297 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,895.13 · official $2,930.55 · 727 history records