Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:01:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b9b…abf4 politics 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$130 (-31%) realized −$130 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$17
14 days−$33
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$74
other 28% −$22
world 15% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-41.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -33.6% -39.9% 0% 0% -39.9%
≤30d 4 -50.7% -55.4% 0% 0% -51.5%
≤90d 8 -35.3% -41.5% 12% 0% -40.3%
all 8 -35.3% -41.5% 12% 0% -40.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.5% 0% -40.3%
10% -47.1% 0% -46.0%
15% -52.2% 0% -51.2%
20% -56.9% 0% -56.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$21 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$130
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage82d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $52 −$17 -34%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $86 −$16 -18%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $42 −$32 -77%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $65 −$48 -74%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $65 −$4 -7%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $40 −$21 -53%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $45 +$2 +3%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $30 −$7 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records