Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:44:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2B 0x2b9a…17e4 crypto 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate78%32W / 9L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$409per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$251now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$4
other 15% −$1
politics 11% −$2
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 11 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 41 +0.4% -9.2% 78% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.5%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$251
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses32 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)41 / 45
History coverage207d
Avg bet$409
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $138 $138 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of XRP be between $0.70 and $0.80 on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on June 20? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 19 $123 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 April 20-26? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on April 25? May 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 April 20-26? May 10 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 10 $42 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 10 $62 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 10 $68 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on March 15? Apr 24 $59 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Apr 24 $91 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? Mar 15 $250 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? Feb 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Feb 04 $38 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026? Feb 04 $162 $0 +0%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Jan 25 $1 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jan 25 $53 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 25 $80 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? Jan 25 $115 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? Dec 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on November 30? Dec 21 $1 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on November 29? Dec 21 $1 $0 +6%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on November 28? Dec 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in November? Dec 21 $265 $0 +0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 28 $180 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on November 29? Nov 28 $1,563 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on November 29? Nov 28 $95 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November? Nov 28 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on November 27? Nov 28 $2,063 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on November 28? Nov 27 $1,767 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on November 27? Nov 27 $2,084 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on November 27? Nov 27 $669 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on November 27? Nov 27 $1,622 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on November 26? Nov 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 26 $2,065 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on November 25? Nov 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on November 25? Nov 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 26 $2,046 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Nov 25 $2,020 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 24? Nov 25 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $138 1h
Will the price of XRP be between $0.70 and $0.80 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $34 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $44 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $123 40d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? BUY No 100¢ $68 56d
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? BUY No 100¢ $62 56d
Will Solana dip to $50 April 20-26? BUY No 100¢ $42 56d
Will Solana dip to $40 April 20-26? BUY No 100¢ $5 56d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on April 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 56d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $42 56d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $91 95d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $100 95d
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on March 15? BUY No 100¢ $59 95d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $250 134d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $162 144d
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? BUY No 100¢ $27 144d
Will Solana reach $210 in January? BUY No 100¢ $38 144d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 100¢ $22 144d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $80 180d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec BUY No 100¢ $53 180d
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $115 180d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $179 203d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on November 29? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,563 203d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on November 29? SELL No 100¢ $95 203d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on November 29? BUY No 100¢ $95 203d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $180 203d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November? SELL No 100¢ $180 203d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on November 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,563 203d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $251.16 · official $251.16 (match) · 137 history records