Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:22:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b96…dc13 crypto 608 markets active 4d ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$32 (+1%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate84%510W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$144
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -4.6% -13.7% 84% 29% -14.2%
≤30d 608 -0.9% -10.3% 84% 37% -10.2%
≤90d 608 -0.9% -10.3% 84% 37% -10.2%
all 608 -0.9% -10.3% 84% 37% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 37% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 22% -18.8%
15% -26.8% 10% -26.6%
20% -33.9% 7% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses510 / 98
Open positions0
Markets (closed)608 / 608
History coverage22d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 608 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1236 history records