Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:38:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b93…cdec weather 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$915 (+9%) realized +$902 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate40%42W / 63L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$50
14 days+$51
30 days−$1,194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 51% +$560
other 41% +$178
crypto 4% −$40
sports 3% +$96
world 1% −$9
politics 1% $0
tech 0% +$5
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -20.3% -27.9% 67% 67% +6.6%
≤30d 46 -54.6% -59.0% 26% 13% -55.9%
≤90d 105 -10.6% -19.1% 40% 27% -2.7%
all 105 -10.6% -19.1% 40% 27% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 27% -2.7%
10% -26.8% 22% -12.0%
15% -33.9% 14% -20.5%
20% -40.4% 12% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$27 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$172
Realized+$902
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses42 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions8
Markets (closed)105 / 113
History coverage73d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 74¢ 98¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+33%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $19 $15 −$3 (-18%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 66¢ 100¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+51%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 98¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Ruben Gallego be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+200%)
Will Andy Beshear be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+142%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $121 +$20 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $156 +$35 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Claude go down 0-2 times in June? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $122 +$3 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $50 +$10 +19%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $75 +$61 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 11? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card) Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 17? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 18? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 17? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 18? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 18? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 17? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 07 $23 −$15 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 21? Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 19? Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on April 18? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 17? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on April 18? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 16? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 16? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on April 18? Jun 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 17? Jun 07 $16 −$12 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 18? Jun 07 $318 −$226 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 18? Jun 07 $847 −$834 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 17? Jun 07 $100 −$95 -95%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $101 +$34 +34%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $115 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 $0 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +4%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $4 −$1 -15%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $16 −$1 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $10 +$4 +35%
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May? May 30 $12 −$1 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? May 30 $13 −$4 -30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? May 29 $1 $0 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in May 2026? May 27 $2 −$1 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in May 2026? May 27 $2 −$2 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? May 23 $1 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 22? May 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in May 2026? May 21 $1 $0 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 760-779 tweets in May 2026? May 21 $1 $0 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 25h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 28h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 2d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 14d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 14d
Will Ruben Gallego be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Will Ruben Gallego be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Will Ruben Gallego be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Will Ruben Gallego be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Will Ruben Gallego be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Will Andy Beshear be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 14d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $125 16d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $122 16d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 60¢ $51 16d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 46¢ $10 16d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 50¢ $10 16d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 36¢ $4 16d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 88¢ $116 17d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 87¢ $115 17d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 74¢ $101 17d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 23d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 23d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.24 · official $172.19 (match) · 738 history records