trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +5.9% | -4.2% | 50% | 50% | -9.1% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +4.0% | -5.9% | 67% | 33% | -9.2% |
| ≤90d | 14 | -0.5% | -10.0% | 43% | 7% | -10.6% |
| all | 25 | -4.9% | -14.0% | 44% | 4% | -10.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.0% | 4% | -10.3% |
| 10% | -22.2% | 0% | -18.9% |
| 15% | -29.7% | 0% | -26.7% |
| 20% | -36.6% | 0% | -33.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 90¢ | $44 | $43 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 24 | $91 | $0 | -0% |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 22 | $4 | $0 | +12% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 27 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 26 | $38 | +$1 | +2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 26 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 25 | $129 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 25 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 24 | $46 | −$7 | -15% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 24 | $49 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 23 | $31 | +$1 | +2% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 23 | $5 | $0 | -4% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 22 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 21 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | May 21 | $39 | −$2 | -4% |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 16 | $2 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? | Dec 13 | $2 | $0 | -11% |
| Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 13 | $1 | $0 | -7% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? | Jun 26 | $17 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will Solana dip to $110 in May? | Jun 02 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will KSI win the match? | Apr 24 | $18 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $83000 and $85000 on Apr 25? | Apr 24 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Wim Eijk be the next pope? | Apr 24 | $17 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the PPC win 3 seats in the next Canadian Election? | Apr 23 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? | Apr 23 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 22 | $17 | $0 | +0% |