Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:16:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b91…41af world 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%29W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$7
other 27% −$4
politics 15% −$1
sports 8% −$9
economics 4% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 31 -0.4% -9.9% 39% 3% -8.9%
≤90d 70 -1.9% -11.3% 33% 1% -9.5%
all 77 -2.6% -11.9% 38% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 3% -9.7%
10% -20.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses29 / 48
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)77 / 80
History coverage535d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 89¢ 87¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $63 −$1 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $28 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $98 −$1 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $21 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $105 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $61 +$3 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $93 +$3 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $14 +$2 +12%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 10 $44 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $42 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $45 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $47 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $80 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $85 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $39 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $4 $0 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $6 −$1 -15%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $7 $0 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $19 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 23 $11 $0 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $35 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $40 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 18 $55 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $11 −$1 -5%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $42 $0 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $142 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $1 $0 +6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $90 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $22 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $55 −$4 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $4 $0 -9%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $72 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $95 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $47 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $41 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $4 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $39 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $5 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $8 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $20 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $26 15h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $31 18h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $17 18h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $15 22h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $33 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $11 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 82¢ $48 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $48 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.13 · official $46.64 (match) · 368 history records