Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:14:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b8c…3771 crypto 266 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$949 (-2%) realized −$1,034 · open +$85
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%138W / 123L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day36.0pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$326now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$380
7 days−$347
14 days−$1,267
30 days−$1,999
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$3,103
sports 4% +$283
world 2% +$487
other 1% +$175
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +3.8% -6.1% 60% 49% -12.3%
≤30d 130 -2.4% -11.7% 57% 47% -15.9%
≤90d 261 +3.4% -6.5% 53% 47% -12.1%
all 261 +3.4% -6.5% 53% 47% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 47% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 42% -20.5%
15% -23.6% 36% -28.2%
20% -31.1% 31% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +10% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$190 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$326
Realized−$1,034
Unrealized+$85
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses138 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions4
Markets (closed)261 / 266
History coverage62d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 261 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Dallas Wings (-10.5) Seattle Storm 55¢ 100¢ $110 $199 +$89 (+81%)
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm Seattle Storm 51¢ 38¢ $89 $66 −$23 (-26%)
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jordan 62¢ 88¢ $31 $44 +$13 (+42%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 30¢ $32 $15 −$18 (-55%)
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm Dallas Wings 48¢ 62¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 23 $204 −$195 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $89 −$18 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $224 +$230 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $99 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $76 +$73 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 23 $318 −$311 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 23 $379 −$190 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $238 −$231 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $429 +$287 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $352 −$322 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $170 −$136 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $301 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $298 +$239 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 23 $148 +$39 +27%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 23 $99 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $207 +$193 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $145 −$131 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $315 +$109 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $134 +$85 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $229 +$101 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $98 +$150 +153%
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 23 $142 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 23 $89 +$16 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $130 +$133 +102%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $242 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $86 +$60 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 23 $114 +$122 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$11 +11%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 23 $51 +$51 +101%
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 23 $86 +$14 +16%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $54 +$54 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $62 +$41 +65%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 23 $78 −$76 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 23 $51 −$32 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $108 −$13 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $89 −$16 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $174 −$13 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $145 +$76 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 23 $87 +$57 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 23 $84 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $257 −$121 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $44 −$31 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 23 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $131 −$13 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $419 −$418 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $30 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $40 6m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 54¢ $40 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $48 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $85 8m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 48¢ $51 11m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Dallas Wings 51¢ $190 11m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Dallas Wings 51¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $20 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $47 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $89 13m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Dallas Wings 50¢ $97 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $28 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $11 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $25 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $49 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $15 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $82 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 19m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 54¢ $2 21m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 54¢ $37 21m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 54¢ $37 21m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 54¢ $37 21m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 54¢ $37 21m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 54¢ $25 21m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 54¢ $25 21m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 54¢ $1 21m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 54¢ $14 21m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $326.25 · official $328.16 (match) · 2400 history records