Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:29:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2B
0x2b8c…4406
weather · 730 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,107 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,141 · open −$34
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5,034
Realized+$1,141
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses682 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions21
Markets (closed)708 / 730
History coverage53d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day50.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 21 History 708 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$674
7 days+$843
14 days+$1,199
30 days+$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? No 97¢ 95¢ $781 $772 −$9 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? No 97¢ 96¢ $606 $596 −$10 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? No 93¢ 96¢ $400 $412 +$12 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? No 98¢ 99¢ $400 $407 +$7 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? No 96¢ 95¢ $400 $395 −$5 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? No 97¢ 100¢ $378 $388 +$10 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? No 94¢ 84¢ $400 $355 −$45 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $290 $295 +$5 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $250 $253 +$3 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 12? No 98¢ 98¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? No 97¢ 97¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? No 98¢ 98¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 12? No 98¢ 99¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? No 98¢ 98¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 13? No 98¢ 98¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 13? No 96¢ 99¢ $55 $57 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? No 98¢ 91¢ $61 $57 −$4 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $34 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 13? No 98¢ 98¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 5? No 92¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 26? No 96¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on May 30? No 98¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 81°F or below on May 6? No 93¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $203 −$10 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $491 +$11 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $459 +$12 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $399 +$26 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C or higher on June Jun 12 $400 +$9 +2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $724 +$308 +42%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $358 +$21 +6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $175 +$22 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $401 +$18 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $334 +$22 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $401 +$12 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $400 +$14 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $401 +$11 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $401 +$15 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 10? Jun 11 $401 +$15 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 10? Jun 11 $47 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $401 +$11 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $250 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 9? Jun 10 $125 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $250 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $798 +$22 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $129 +$121 +94%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C or higher on June Jun 10 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 9? Jun 10 $401 +$31 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 10 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $116 −$114 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 9? Jun 09 $802 +$31 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $300 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $406 +$12 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $397 +$17 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $292 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 96°F or higher on June 8? Jun 09 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 75°F or below on June 8? Jun 09 $250 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 8? Jun 09 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 8? Jun 09 $178 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 8? Jun 09 $138 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 96°F or higher on June 8? Jun 09 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 09 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 8? Jun 09 $150 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 8? Jun 09 $12 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $200 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $198 +$9 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $180 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on June 7? Jun 08 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 08 $250 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 7? Jun 08 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 7? Jun 08 $156 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% +$790
other 1% +$317
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 5m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 46¢ $96 6m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $8 10m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $50 13m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $27 18m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $50 34m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $50 38m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $31 54m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $50 59m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $50 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $102 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $97 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $54 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 23¢ $42 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $50 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 6h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $50 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $50 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $50 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $50 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $50 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 53¢ $101 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 13 BUY No 96¢ $50 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +3.4% -6.4% 97% 4% -5.0%
≤30d 261 +1.1% -8.6% 97% 2% -9.3%
≤90d 708 +6.5% -3.6% 96% 6% -8.4%
all 708 +6.5% -3.6% 96% 6% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover50.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.6% 6% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -12.9% 2% -17.2%
15% -21.3% 2% -25.2%
20% -29.0% 2% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,033.85 · official $5,033.72 (match) · 3500 history records