Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:33:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b87…858d other 180 markets active 2h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%12W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% −$6
sports 22% −$4
politics 16% −$2
economics 12% +$1
culture 7% −$3
crypto 6% −$1
world 6% −$1
tech 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.6% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 4 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 5 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.2%
all 180 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses12 / 168
Open positions0
Markets (closed)180 / 180
History coverage169d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 180 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $34 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $36 $0 -1%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $32 $0 -2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 25 $35 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $71 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 12 $206 $0 -0%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 12 $34 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $40 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 12 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 11 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 11 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 11 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 10 $39 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 10 $41 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 10 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 10 $39 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 10 $39 $0 -1%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 09 $29 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 09 $232 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 09 $77 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 08 $282 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 08 $103 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 08 $124 $0 -0%
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 07 $101 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 06 $33 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 04 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 04 $38 −$1 -3%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 03 $43 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 03 $228 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 03 $118 $0 -0%
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Feb 25 $44 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 25 $85 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 25 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 25 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 25 $50 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 25 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 25 $83 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 22 $127 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $3 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $111 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $142 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 22 $3 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 22 $43 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 22 $186 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 22 $91 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 93¢ $34 1h
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 93¢ $34 5h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $36 12d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $36 12d
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $32 19d
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $32 20d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 96¢ $35 28d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 97¢ $35 28d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $31 35d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $31 35d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $37 102d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $37 102d
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 94¢ $33 102d
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 96¢ $7 102d
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 96¢ $27 102d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $40 102d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $40 102d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $39 102d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $39 103d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $37 103d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $37 103d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 93¢ $31 103d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $32 103d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 103d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 104d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $36 104d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $36 104d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 98¢ $39 104d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $39 104d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 98¢ $41 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 718 history records