Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:10:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b86…e8cb crypto 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 547d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$79 (-4%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate58%31W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days+$64
14 days+$64
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$15
other 37% −$10
politics 2% $0
sports 2% +$6
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +11.5% +0.8% 55% 55% +4.7%
≤30d 20 +11.5% +0.8% 55% 55% +4.7%
≤90d 36 -6.3% -15.3% 50% 50% -19.7%
all 53 -2.2% -11.5% 58% 36% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 36% -10.3%
10% -20.0% 32% -18.9%
15% -27.7% 32% -26.7%
20% -34.8% 32% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$26 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

547d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses31 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage547d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$21 +80%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$22 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$21 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$20 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$24 +91%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$16 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $30 −$29 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$34 +325%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$16 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $23 +$19 +82%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$10 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 01 $5 +$1 +18%
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Anna Bondar May 01 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Mar 22 $50 +$53 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Mar 22 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Mar 22 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Mar 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Mar 22 $100 +$82 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Mar 22 $50 −$49 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Mar 22 $50 −$49 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Mar 22 $50 −$49 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Mar 22 $30 −$30 -98%
XRP Up or Down - March 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Mar 22 $50 −$49 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Mar 22 $50 +$38 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Mar 22 $50 +$40 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Mar 22 $30 −$30 -98%
Suns vs. Spurs Mar 22 $13 +$3 +20%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on February 25? Mar 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Nike say "China" during earnings call? Feb 24 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the U.S. House of Representatives session be announced by Novembe Dec 09 $13 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Dec 09 $109 +$103 +94%
Will Robinhood say "Expense" during earnings call? Nov 11 $13 $0 +1%
Which party wins Virginia House of Delegates? Nov 04 $13 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast reach 450 million subscribers in 2025? Oct 14 $13 $0 -1%
Will Barcelona finish in the top 4 of the La Liga 2025–26 standings? Sep 26 $13 $0 -1%
Record low border encounters in June? Sep 03 $13 $0 +0%
Solana above $140 on July 4? Jul 14 $13 $0 +3%
Will Andrew Cuomo win The Bronx in the New York City Mayoral Democrati Jul 03 $12 $0 +2%
Will Trzaskowski or Nawrocki win the diaspora vote? Jun 19 $12 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win less than 45 seats? May 29 $12 $0 +2%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 16 $12 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $47 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $21 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $46 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $41 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $25 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records