Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:45:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

2B 0x2b82…0d12 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$32 (-16%) realized −$27 · open −$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip

Net edge-46%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$40per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-45.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+20.5%	+9.0%	100%	100%	+9.0%
≤30d	2	-39.8%	-45.5%	50%	50%	-27.3%
≤90d	2	-39.8%	-45.5%	50%	50%	-27.3%
all	2	-39.8%	-45.5%	50%	50%	-27.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-45.5%	50%	-27.3%
10%	-50.7%	0%	-34.3%
15%	-55.5%	0%	-40.6%
20%	-59.8%	0%	-46.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -20% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -40% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$12 vs −$30 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.41 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$174

Realized−$27

Unrealized−$5

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)2 / 5

History coverage10d

Avg bet$40

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	72¢	72¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	58¢	52¢	$50	$45	−$5 (-9%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	26¢	26¢	$7	$7	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$60	+$12	+20%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 17	$30	−$30	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	26¢	$7	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	72¢	$50	1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	58¢	$51	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	83¢	$60	1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	53¢	$30	10d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.07 · official $174.07 (match) · 5 history records