Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:20:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b82…0fbb sports 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$79 (-6%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%40W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$133
crypto 13% +$20
other 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 102 -27.4% -34.3% 39% 33% -17.1%
all 102 -27.4% -34.3% 39% 33% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.3% 33% -17.1%
10% -40.6% 31% -25.0%
15% -46.3% 25% -32.3%
20% -51.6% 20% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses40 / 62
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage52d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 42¢ 43¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spirit win PGL Astana 2026? May 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Chinggis Warriors (BO3) - Asian Champions May 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 12 $5 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $21 +$13 +64%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $8 +$2 +27%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $7 +$5 +76%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $14 +$4 +30%
Will FURIA win PGL Astana 2026? May 11 $5 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Lavked (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group St May 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: Favbet vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Gr May 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers May 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 11 $5 +$4 +84%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Fisher College (BO3) - PGL Astana Group May 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group Stage May 10 $10 +$5 +48%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $14 +$11 +77%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $12 +$8 +64%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner May 10 $30 +$13 +42%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 10 $15 +$4 +28%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs The Huns Esports (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Gro May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Lavked (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Gr May 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group May 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Benched gods (BO3) - CCT Europe Challeng May 09 $10 −$9 -90%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $24 −$14 -58%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - Exort Series Main Stage May 08 $2 $0 +20%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Lavked (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Seri May 08 $25 +$19 +75%
Counter-Strike: BET-M 33 vs SPARTA (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Seri May 08 $5 −$2 -39%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S May 08 $21 −$14 -65%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Gro May 08 $4 $0 +12%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs Walczaki (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series May 08 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Falcons win PGL Astana 2026? May 08 $5 −$1 -23%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 08 $3 $0 -8%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs BIG Academy (BO3) - United21 Playoffs May 08 $8 +$8 +93%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 08 $3 +$2 +73%
Will Solana dip to $80 on May 7? May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana dip to $85 on May 7? May 08 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Brute vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Ser May 08 $36 +$3 +8%
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Grou May 08 $19 +$9 +50%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - CCT South Americ May 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Benched gods vs m1x (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Ser May 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group S May 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 42¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY 9z 65¢ $5 31d
Will Spirit win PGL Astana 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $5 31d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY Aurora Gaming 36¢ $6 34d
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Chinggis Warriors (BO3) - Asian Champions BUY Chinggis Warriors 43¢ $3 34d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY Aurora Gaming 47¢ $10 34d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St BUY TheMongolz 37¢ $10 34d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group SELL BC.Game Esports 9¢ $5 35d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group BUY BC.Game Esports 6¢ $5 35d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BUY FaZe 32¢ $5 35d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage SELL Spirit 100¢ $34 35d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY Spirit 60¢ $10 35d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage SELL magic 94¢ $11 35d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY magic 73¢ $8 35d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage SELL MOUZ 90¢ $8 35d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY MOUZ 50¢ $5 35d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage SELL 9z 59¢ $4 35d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY Spirit 60¢ $10 35d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY 9z 33¢ $3 35d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY Monte 18¢ $5 35d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage SELL TheMongolz 93¢ $18 35d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY TheMongolz 74¢ $5 35d
Will FURIA win PGL Astana 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 35d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY TheMongolz 69¢ $8 35d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $8 35d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S BUY Aurora Gaming 53¢ $5 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 36d
Will Spirit win PGL Astana 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 36d
Will FURIA win PGL Astana 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 36d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Lavked (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group St BUY SPARTA 33¢ $3 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.08 · official $20.08 (match) · 367 history records