Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:02:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
2B 0x2b81…9ca3 other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$815 (+26%) realized +$815 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate57%17W / 13L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$588
sports 7% +$190
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +16.3% +5.2% 57% 47% +14.8%
≤30d 30 +16.3% +5.2% 57% 47% +14.8%
≤90d 30 +16.3% +5.2% 57% 47% +14.8%
all 30 +16.3% +5.2% 57% 47% +14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.2% 47% +14.8%
10% -4.9% 37% +3.8%
15% -14.1% 33% -6.2%
20% -22.5% 20% -15.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$38 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.55 per $1 lost it wins $2.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$815
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage7d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $82 +$12 +14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $804 +$77 +10%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$44 +88%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $121 −$74 -61%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $72 −$26 -36%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $15 −$7 -47%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $10 −$2 -17%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $166 +$738 +446%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $511 −$180 -35%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $165 +$2 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$56 +55%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $179 +$54 +30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $114 +$65 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $84 +$30 +36%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 −$127 -62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $111 −$11 -10%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $185 +$70 +38%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -94%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$2 -9%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $49 +$105 +213%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 +$2 +20%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$5 -38%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 +$2 +14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $49 −$37 -75%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$11 +206%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $94 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 87¢ $82 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $779 2h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $20 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 91¢ $702 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $92 9h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $95 17h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 17h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 42¢ $45 17h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 17h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 10¢ $30 17h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 17h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 18h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 18h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 18h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 19h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $90 19h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $72 19h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 100¢ $904 21h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 18¢ $166 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 30¢ $166 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 29¢ $167 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 42¢ $167 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $165 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 32¢ $165 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $55 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $289 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records