Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:41:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2B 0x2b80…2f49 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$1
politics 38% −$1
economics 6% $0
crypto 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
all 16 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage106d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $117 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $117 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $117 −$1 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $117 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $118 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $118 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $117 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $118 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 10 $119 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $119 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 31 $119 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 27 $120 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 21 $119 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 17 $120 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 13 $120 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $117 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $117 13h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $117 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $117 3d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $117 11d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $117 12d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $117 19d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $117 19d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $117 28d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $118 28d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $118 39d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $118 39d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $118 42d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $117 43d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $118 46d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $118 47d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $119 73d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $119 73d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $119 78d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $119 78d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $119 82d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $119 83d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $119 87d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $119 88d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $119 91d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $120 91d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $119 97d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $119 98d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $120 102d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $120 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records