Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:25:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b7f…f4cc weather 159 markets active 20h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-1%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%157W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 85% +$2
world 7% −$22
other 4% $0
politics 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 34 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 94 -0.9% -10.4% 99% 0% -10.7%
all 159 -0.5% -10.0% 99% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -10.3%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$23 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses157 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)159 / 159
History coverage183d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 159 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 10? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 4? Jun 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 31? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma May 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 30? May 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 29? May 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 28? May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 28? May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on May 27? May 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 26? May 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 25? May 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on May 25? May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 25? May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 24? May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 24? May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on May May 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on May 22? May 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Trump Leave China on May 14? May 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 13 $23 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 29? Apr 29 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on April 27? Apr 28 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 27? Apr 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ap Apr 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 26? Apr 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on April 25? Apr 25 $23 $0 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th? Apr 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 23? Apr 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on April 23? Apr 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 22? Apr 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 22 Apr 22 $23 $0 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 22 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $7 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $7 44h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $7 6d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $7 6d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $7 7d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $7 8d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $7 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on June 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 10d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $7 11d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 12d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $7 13d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C or higher on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 14d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $7 16d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma BUY Yes 100¢ $7 17d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $7 17d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $7 18d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $7 19d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $7 19d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $7 20d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 21d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 21d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $7 22d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $7 22d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $7 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 317 history records