Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:08:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b7e…38c8 sports 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$55 (+7%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +120% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +70% what you keep after slip
Net edge+70%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%12W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day28.3pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$45
other 14% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+99.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +120.2% +99.2% 38% 31% -10.3%
≤30d 32 +120.2% +99.2% 38% 31% -10.3%
≤90d 32 +120.2% +99.2% 38% 31% -10.3%
all 32 +120.2% +99.2% 38% 31% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +99.2% 31% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here +80.1% 28% -18.9%
15% +62.7% 16% -26.7%
20% +46.8% 16% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +120% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +269% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$7 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses12 / 20
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage4d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day28.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $20 −$6 -31%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $60 +$15 +25%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $101 +$19 +19%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $149 +$8 +6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $20 +$5 +26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $60 −$30 -50%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$31 +307%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -16%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $47 −$3 -7%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $28 +$31 +109%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $77 +$21 +27%
Australia to score first vs. United States? Jun 19 $10 −$4 -35%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $47 +$12 +26%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $31 +$9 +30%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$9 -92%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $23 −$22 -97%
Qatar to score first vs. Canada? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -95%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 +$4 +32%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 +$6 +140%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 $0 -38%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 $0 -24%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -22%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner SELL Gentle Mates 16¢ $14 22m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 22¢ $20 38m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner SELL Gentle Mates 100¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner SELL Gentle Mates 99¢ $73 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 78¢ $60 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $1 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 99¢ $118 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 83¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 78¢ $119 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 71¢ $57 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 68¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 33¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 53¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 25¢ $26 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 19¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 19¢ $17 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 9¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 22¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 32¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 40¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 45¢ $15 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 56¢ $17 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 28¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 42¢ $10 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 15h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 17h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 53¢ $11 17h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records