Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:05:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2B 0x2b7a…199c sports 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$39 (+0%) realized +$145 · open −$106
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%94W / 1L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$13
other 9% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 34 +1.2% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 95 +0.6% -9.0% 99% 0% -8.5%
all 95 +0.6% -9.0% 99% 0% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 0% -8.5%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.2%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$51 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.58 per $1 lost it wins $3.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized+$145
Unrealized−$106
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses94 / 1
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)95 / 97
History coverage82d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China - Completed match? Yes 99¢ 51¢ $198 $102 −$96 (-48%)
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match goes to Day 3? Yes 97¢ 88¢ $101 $91 −$10 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria - Completed match? Jun 20 $200 +$4 +2%
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match go Jun 20 $73 +$1 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland - Completed match? Jun 19 $99 +$1 +1%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China - Completed match? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria - Completed match? Jun 19 $35 $0 +1%
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match go Jun 19 $95 +$1 +1%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China - Completed match? Jun 18 $103 +$1 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil - Completed match? Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi - Completed match? Jun 17 $153 +$1 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka - Completed match? Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi - Completed match? Jun 15 $150 +$1 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil - Completed match? Jun 14 $198 +$2 +1%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Botswana vs Rwanda - May 30 $52 +$1 +2%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Kenya vs Ivory Coast May 30 $52 +$1 +2%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Kenya vs Botswana - C May 29 $99 +$1 +1%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Cameroon vs Mali - Co May 29 $99 +$1 +1%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Sierra Leone vs Ivory May 29 $99 +$1 +1%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Kenya vs Cameroon - C May 28 $99 +$1 +2%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Sierra Leone vs Rwand May 28 $100 +$1 +2%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Ivory Coast vs Botswa May 28 $100 +$1 +2%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Essex - Completed match? May 26 $99 +$1 +1%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Ivory Coast vs Camero May 26 $99 +$1 +1%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Mali vs Rwanda - Comp May 26 $99 +$1 +1%
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Nottinghamshire - Completed match? May 25 $99 +$1 +1%
T20 Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand - Co May 25 $99 +$1 +1%
T20 Blast: Warwickshire vs Somerset - Completed match? May 24 $99 +$1 +1%
T20 Blast: Yorkshire vs Derbyshire - Completed match? May 24 $99 +$1 +1%
T20 Blast: Middlesex vs Surrey - Completed match? May 24 $99 +$1 +1%
T20 Blast: Glamorgan vs Gloucestershire - Completed match? May 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings - Complete May 23 $100 +$1 +1%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Hampshire - Completed match? May 22 $100 +$1 +1%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Glamorgan - Completed match? May 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings - Complet May 21 $99 +$1 +1%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants - Comp May 19 $99 +$1 +1%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Guernsey vs Austria - C May 19 $99 +$1 +1%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Switzerland vs Croatia May 19 $99 +$1 +1%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Jersey vs France - Comp May 19 $99 +$1 +1%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals - Completed May 17 $170 +$2 +1%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings - C May 15 $37 +$1 +2%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad - Complet May 12 $100 +$1 +1%
T20 Series Pakistan vs Zimbabwe, Women: Pakistan vs Zimbabwe - Complet May 12 $90 +$1 +1%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians - May 10 $299 +$11 +4%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans - Completed May 09 $100 +$1 +1%
ODI Series Pakistan vs Zimbabwe, Women: Pakistan vs Zimbabwe - Complet May 09 $200 +$3 +1%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders - Compl May 08 $100 +$1 +1%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings - Completed May 06 $200 +$4 +2%
ODI Series Pakistan vs Zimbabwe, Women: Pakistan vs Zimbabwe - Complet May 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match go BUY Yes 98¢ $9 1h
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match go BUY Yes 98¢ $50 1h
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match go BUY Yes 97¢ $2 1h
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match go BUY Yes 97¢ $5 1h
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match go BUY Yes 96¢ $25 1h
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match go BUY Yes 95¢ $5 1h
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match go BUY Yes 95¢ $5 1h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China - Completed match? BUY Yes 99¢ $198 3h
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match go BUY Yes 99¢ $37 17h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria - Completed match? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 27h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria - Completed match? BUY Yes 98¢ $7 27h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria - Completed match? BUY Yes 98¢ $7 27h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria - Completed match? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 27h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria - Completed match? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 27h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria - Completed match? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 27h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria - Completed match? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 27h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria - Completed match? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 27h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria - Completed match? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 27h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria - Completed match? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 27h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria - Completed match? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 27h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria - Completed match? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 27h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria - Completed match? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 27h
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match go BUY Yes 99¢ $1 31h
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match go BUY Yes 99¢ $10 31h
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match go BUY Yes 98¢ $5 31h
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match go BUY Yes 98¢ $4 31h
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match go BUY Yes 98¢ $6 31h
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match go BUY Yes 98¢ $10 31h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria - Completed match? BUY Yes 99¢ $0 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria - Completed match? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.80 · official $192.80 (match) · 231 history records