Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:07:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b7a…f9b4 crypto 530 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$12 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%309W / 205L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$16
14 days−$22
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 28% $0
other 26% +$25
world 22% $0
sports 13% −$18
politics 8% −$5
weather 2% −$9
finance 1% +$1
economics 0% +$1
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -11.8% -20.2% 44% 44% -37.5%
≤30d 151 -6.1% -15.0% 57% 31% -9.7%
≤90d 392 -0.8% -10.2% 60% 35% -11.4%
all 514 +0.8% -8.8% 60% 40% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 40% -9.7%
10% -17.5% 35% -18.3%
15% -25.5% 28% -26.2%
20% -32.8% 20% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses309 / 205
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions15
Markets (closed)514 / 530
History coverage128d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 514 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 48¢ 99¢ $3 $5 +$3 (+105%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 59¢ 96¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+63%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 25¢ 40¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+62%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 63¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+57%)
Weed rescheduled by June 30? No 63¢ 98¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+56%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 37¢ 99¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+168%)
Weed rescheduled by December 31? No 57¢ 73¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+27%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 61¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 94¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+26%)
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? No 94¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 28¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Michael Echols be the Republican nominee for LA-05? No 80¢ 50¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-37%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 36¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-89%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 23¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 62¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 58¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 65¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 37¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +75%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -72%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -71%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +35%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $1 $0 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -89%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $3 +$3 +91%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $3 −$2 -67%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 08 $1 $0 -43%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $1 $0 -19%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? Jun 07 $1 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 07 $1 $0 -24%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 07 $1 $0 -7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 07 $1 $0 -22%
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? Jun 07 $1 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 05 $1 $0 -14%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 04 $1 $0 +43%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $4 +$2 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +110%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $2 +$3 +153%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 -16%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 01 $0 $0 +18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +4%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +35%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 23h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 41h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 31¢ $1 44h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 41¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $3 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 82¢ $1 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 70¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL No 15¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 50¢ $1 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 25¢ $1 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 63¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $4 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $0 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $0 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $0 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $0 4d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.78 · official $33.30 (match) · 1677 history records