Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:09:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b75…6b5e crypto 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$52 (+2%) realized +$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate90%100W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$66
14 days+$53
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$41
other 30% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 +1.6% -8.1% 98% 10% -7.2%
≤30d 111 -5.4% -14.4% 90% 12% -8.1%
≤90d 111 -5.4% -14.4% 90% 12% -8.1%
all 111 -5.4% -14.4% 90% 12% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 12% -8.1%
10% -22.6% 6% -16.9%
15% -30.1% 2% -24.9%
20% -36.9% 1% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses100 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage27d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 111 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$2 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $23 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$8 +15%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$2 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$7 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$15 +30%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$11 +22%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $13 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $7 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$5 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$2 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $33 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$2 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 19 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $23 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $50 5h
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 14h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 14h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 14h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $19 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 15h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $50 16h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $51 19h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $51 21h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 23h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $23 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 26h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 27h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $51 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 220 history records