Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:48:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b75…2e6d other 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$71 (+1%) realized +$90 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%25W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day43.6pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$631now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$245
sports 32% +$501
crypto 28% −$584
world 1% +$169
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -2.2% -11.5% 29% 29% -12.3%
≤30d 87 -2.2% -11.5% 29% 29% -12.3%
≤90d 87 -2.2% -11.5% 29% 29% -12.3%
all 87 -2.2% -11.5% 29% 29% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 29% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 29% -20.7%
15% -27.7% 26% -28.3%
20% -34.8% 24% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$45 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$631
Realized+$90
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses25 / 62
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions20
Markets (closed)87 / 111
History coverage4d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day43.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 Over 32¢ 32¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Under 36¢ 36¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Under 63¢ 62¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? No 49¢ 46¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 4.5 Over 16¢ 16¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 3 Portugal? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 2 Uzbekistan? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 3 Uzbekistan? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 1 Ghana? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 0 Ghana? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Panama vs. England: O/U 4.5 Over 28¢ 29¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Over 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $124 −$120 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $73 −$70 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 27 $114 +$92 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 27 $62 +$36 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $94 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 27 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 27 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $146 −$140 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 27 $52 +$31 +60%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $31 +$169 +550%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $31 +$169 +550%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $102 +$126 +124%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $101 +$53 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 27 $93 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $282 +$70 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 27 $145 −$140 -96%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $101 +$48 +48%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $21 +$104 +510%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $30 +$7 +24%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $51 +$118 +231%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $61 +$98 +160%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $21 +$8 +37%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 26 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $32 −$30 -95%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $306 −$300 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Spain? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Belgium? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Spain? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $51 +$187 +365%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $51 +$306 +596%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $102 +$255 +250%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $21 +$337 +1636%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $81 +$130 +159%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $32 3h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $102 3h
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 3 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 3h
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 2 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $51 3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $102 3h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 4h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $101 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 49¢ $102 4h
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 4h
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 4h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 4h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $10 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $631.11 · official $631.12 (match) · 175 history records