Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:17:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
2B 0x2b74…8171 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$484 (+35%) realized +$484 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate75%12W / 4L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$472
crypto 2% −$3
sports 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +11.2% +0.6% 75% 62% +21.8%
≤30d 16 +11.2% +0.6% 75% 62% +21.8%
≤90d 16 +11.2% +0.6% 75% 62% +21.8%
all 16 +11.2% +0.6% 75% 62% +21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 62% +21.8%
10% -9.0% 44% +10.2%
15% -17.8% 31% -0.5%
20% -25.9% 25% -10.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$8 · ×5.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×16.56 per $1 lost it wins $16.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$484
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses12 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage5d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $409 +$352 +86%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $311 +$99 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $399 $0 -0%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $81 +$8 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $53 +$28 +52%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$8 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $3 +$3 +88%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$18 -85%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19 +$2 +12%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 21 $8 +$4 +50%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $13 +$2 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $12 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $761 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $409 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $410 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $311 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $311 33h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $311 34h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 85¢ $87 42h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $88 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $81 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $53 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $21 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $12 3d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 100¢ $12 3d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 66¢ $4 3d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 66¢ $4 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 83¢ $7 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $7 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records