Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:23:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2B 0x2b74…1a07 crypto 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$105 (+0%) realized +$84 · open +$21
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%44W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,312per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$5,290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$21
14 days+$27
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% +$45
world 15% +$33
other 8% +$18
tech 3% +$2
politics 2% +$5
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 34 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 40 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 44 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,053) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$5,290
Realized+$84
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses44 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)44 / 51
History coverage153d
Avg bet$1,312
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $2,419 $2,420 +$1 (+0%)
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,194 $1,204 +$10 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $737 $746 +$9 (+1%)
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $600 $601 +$2 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $188 $188 −$0 (-0%)
EU dissolves before 2027? No 97¢ 97¢ $106 $106 +$0 (+0%)
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $2,604 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $2,750 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $3,227 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,848 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,498 +$2 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Jun 16 $1,053 +$5 +0%
JD Vance out as VP by June 15? Jun 16 $705 +$1 +0%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1,640 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $158 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $101 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $101 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $101 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $200 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $646 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $5,066 +$5 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $5,080 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $5,081 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $3,091 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,997 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,112 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $3,130 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $5,165 +$5 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May? Jun 01 $97 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by May 31? Jun 01 $9 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,053 +$6 +0%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? Jun 01 $1,104 +$5 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $2,000 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 30? May 30 $943 +$1 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May? May 30 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? May 29 $3,999 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 29? May 29 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30? May 06 $292 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $291 +$1 +0%
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? Apr 04 $15 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March? Apr 04 $68 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 04 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of March 20 Apr 04 $105 +$1 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,000 on the final trading day of February Mar 06 $52 $0 +0%
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jan 21 $5 $0 +1%
Trove FDV above $10M one day after launch? Jan 21 $25 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $894 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,524 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $188 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,604 25h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $149 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,750 2d
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $465 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $15 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $3,227 4d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $198 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,848 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,498 6d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $10 6d
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $167 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $49 8d
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $6 8d
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $33 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $104 8d
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $742 8d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $467 8d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $99 8d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $237 8d
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $13 8d
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $469 8d
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 9d
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $11 9d
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $25 9d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $25 9d
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $248 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,290.36 · official $5,290.36 (match) · 140 history records