Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:44:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b71…f840 other 173 markets active 0h ago coverage 279d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,129 (-29%) realized −$919 · open −$210
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate17%25W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$1,284now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$180
7 days+$1
14 days−$62
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$545
sports 15% −$92
crypto 11% −$316
politics 3% +$3
world 2% −$77
economics 1% −$48
tech 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 +8.9% -1.5% 22% 22% -9.4%
≤30d 98 +0.5% -9.1% 21% 21% -13.8%
≤90d 145 -31.4% -37.9% 15% 14% -42.2%
all 149 -27.5% -34.4% 17% 16% -42.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.4% 16% -42.2%
10% -40.7% 15% -47.8%
15% -46.4% 15% -52.8%
20% -51.7% 13% -57.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -61% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$13 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$1,284
Realized−$919
Unrealized−$210
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses25 / 124
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions24
Markets (closed)149 / 173
History coverage279d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $1,134 $629 −$505 (-45%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Yes 21¢ 100¢ $69 $335 +$266 (+383%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 86¢ $39 $86 +$47 (+121%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $48 $44 −$4 (-9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $36 $34 −$2 (-5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $26 $31 +$5 (+18%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $42 $31 −$12 (-28%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 60¢ $5 $21 +$17 (+362%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $13 $18 +$5 (+42%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-85%)
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$4 (-90%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Haiti? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Haiti? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $170 +$30 +17%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $229 −$221 -96%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $8 +$6 +77%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $2 +$8 +550%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 +$9 +76%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $5 +$35 +650%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $24 +$26 +105%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 +$28 +1290%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $7 −$6 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $2 +$18 +785%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$35 +226%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 +$11 +36%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $11 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $17 +$23 +129%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $14 +$36 +250%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 +$15 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 +$6 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $16 +$24 +152%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Brazil 2¢ $3 14m
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Brazil 3¢ $6 14m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? SELL Yes 5¢ $14 15m
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 26¢ $13 20m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 20m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 31m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 90¢ $37 43m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 90¢ $45 43m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 90¢ $8 43m
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 66¢ $60 47m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 48m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 48m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 77¢ $78 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 78¢ $79 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 80¢ $80 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 19h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 19h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 19h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 19h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $14 19h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 19h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 19h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 19h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 19h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,283.80 · official $1,283.80 (match) · 706 history records