Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:45:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2B 0x2b6f…df2f other 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$134 (+0%) realized +$134 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate12%15W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$17
politics 36% −$17
sports 9% +$167
economics 3% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 111 -2.4% -11.7% 7% 5% -9.6%
all 125 +5.5% -4.6% 12% 9% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 9% -9.2%
10% -13.7% 8% -17.9%
15% -22.1% 8% -25.8%
20% -29.7% 7% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$1 · ×15.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$134
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses15 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage115d
Avg bet$309
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? No 100¢ 99¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $642 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $339 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $75 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $674 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $47 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $49 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $54 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $324 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $878 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $304 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 24 $305 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $280 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $301 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $574 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $256 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $242 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $248 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $298 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $279 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 09 $929 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $199 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $579 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 06 $56 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $266 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $551 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $641 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $263 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 01 $254 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $217 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $235 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $284 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $253 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $260 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $690 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $266 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $320 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $273 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $613 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 41h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $51 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $51 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 7d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 11d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 12d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 12d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 12d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 12d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 13d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 13d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 14d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 14d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 16d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $324 16d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $100 16d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 16d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 16d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $2 16d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 16d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $6 16d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 16d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $0 16d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1 16d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1 16d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $5 16d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.98 · official $37.98 (match) · 392 history records