Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:06:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b6f…4b04 other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate35%17W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$15
other 37% +$10
politics 12% $0
sports 8% −$35
crypto 4% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +7.2% -3.0% 44% 11% -4.5%
≤30d 12 +5.4% -4.7% 33% 8% -5.8%
≤90d 12 +5.4% -4.7% 33% 8% -5.8%
all 48 +0.3% -9.2% 35% 4% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 4% -10.4%
10% -17.9% 4% -19.0%
15% -25.8% 4% -26.8%
20% -33.1% 4% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses17 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage318d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $76 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $39 +$3 +8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $12 +$1 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $7 $0 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $46 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $20 +$12 +58%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $57 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $9 +$7 +73%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $6 $0 +0%
Clippers vs. Hornets Nov 24 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $47 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $120 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $79 $0 +0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Nov 18 $37 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $37 +$3 +8%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $123K on August 12 at 5PM ET Aug 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in August? Aug 07 $1 $0 -36%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Aug 06 $39 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $46 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $46 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $46 16h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $13 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $42 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $39 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $22 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $22 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 11¢ $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 11¢ $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $43 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $43 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $34 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 30¢ $18 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $11 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $3 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 16¢ $20 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.30 · official $46.25 (match) · 165 history records