Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:08:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b6d…b0fd crypto 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$134 (-32%) realized −$134 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%5W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$252
world 1% +$10
other 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-64.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -60.9% -64.6% 19% 19% -64.5%
≤30d 27 -60.9% -64.6% 19% 19% -64.5%
≤90d 27 -60.9% -64.6% 19% 19% -64.5%
all 27 -60.9% -64.6% 19% 19% -64.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -64.6% 19% -64.5%
10% -68.0% 19% -67.9%
15% -71.1% 11% -71.0%
20% -73.9% 11% -73.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 84% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -61% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -62% → late -60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$15 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$134
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses5 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage4d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 28 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 28 $8 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 28 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 28 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 25 $5 +$10 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 24 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 23 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 23 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$40 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$36 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 8¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $17 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $66 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records