Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:43:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b6c…bef8 politics 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$64 (-0%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate5%6W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$12
politics 40% −$15
crypto 7% −$1
sports 7% −$37
economics 4% −$1
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 112 -2.8% -12.1% 2% 2% -9.7%
all 126 -3.7% -12.9% 5% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 2% -9.7%
10% -21.2% 2% -18.4%
15% -28.8% 2% -26.3%
20% -35.8% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×10.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses6 / 120
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)126 / 126
History coverage116d
Avg bet$233
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 126 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $283 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $260 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $204 $0 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $18 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $227 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $27 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $25 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $27 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $23 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $196 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 27 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $173 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $366 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 25 $161 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $231 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $228 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $222 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $414 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $167 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $218 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $214 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $184 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $214 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $208 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $181 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $198 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 12 $383 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $195 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $223 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 10 $233 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $458 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $380 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $666 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $175 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $170 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 03 $167 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $413 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $186 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $449 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $227 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $171 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 29 $218 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $228 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $192 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $192 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 1h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 5h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 5h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 11h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 6d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $18 7d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $18 7d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 7d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 8d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 9d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 10d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $34 10d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 10d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 11d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 11d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 13d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 14d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 14d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 14d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 15d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 15d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $196 24d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $196 25d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $233 25d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $233 26d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $173 26d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $173 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 354 history records