Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:34:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2B 0x2b6b…2ae8 sports 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,225 (+4%) realized +$1,225 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate69%24W / 11L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$791per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$351est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,545
7 days+$1,545
14 days+$1,545
30 days+$1,545
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$1,173
other 8% +$481
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +4.0% -5.9% 69% 58% -2.0%
≤30d 26 +4.0% -5.9% 69% 58% -2.0%
≤90d 35 +7.0% -3.2% 69% 51% -4.1%
all 35 +7.0% -3.2% 69% 51% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 51% -4.1%
10% -12.5% 43% -13.3%
15% -20.9% 40% -21.7%
20% -28.7% 23% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,420) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$305 vs −$516 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,225
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses24 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$351
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage64d
Avg bet$791
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,894 +$815 +43%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $201 +$56 +28%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $1,525 +$1,820 +119%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 19 $502 +$73 +14%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $2,113 −$93 -4%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,117 −$1,111 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $30 +$11 +36%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$11 +38%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $1,003 +$111 +11%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,006 +$77 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,010 +$505 +50%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$4 +192%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leagu Jun 16 $2,434 −$2,434 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,992 +$752 +38%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,420 +$677 +48%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $920 +$501 +54%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $911 +$9 +1%
Warriors vs. Suns: 1H Moneyline Apr 18 $44 −$41 -95%
Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 218.5 Apr 18 $470 −$425 -90%
LoL: Dark Passage vs BoostGate Esports (BO3) - TCL Regular Season Apr 18 $880 +$854 +97%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 18 $1,733 −$1,252 -72%
Xinjiang Flying Tigers vs. Shanghai Sharks Apr 17 $821 +$59 +7%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 17 $433 +$387 +89%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 17 $148 +$286 +193%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 16 $2,301 +$133 +6%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 16 $2,195 +$106 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 83¢ $2,709 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 57¢ $1,894 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 81¢ $101 9h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 75¢ $101 9h
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Canada 87¢ $502 22h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Canada 45¢ $1,525 22h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 25¢ $2,020 22h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Qatar 0¢ $6 22h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 25¢ $11 22h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 25¢ $2,103 22h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 48¢ $1,016 24h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 48¢ $102 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $102 26h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 63¢ $10 27h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $30 27h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 27h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $10 28h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 90¢ $1,003 35h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 63¢ $101 36h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 99¢ $10 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 87¢ $1,083 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,006 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,010 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series SELL Team Nemesis 100¢ $114 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Team Nemesis 88¢ $100 3d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY 34¢ $1 3d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY 34¢ $1 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $1,992 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records