Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:12:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2B 0x2b6a…0b14 crypto 419 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$38 (-6%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%157W / 262L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$19
14 days−$15
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$50
sports 21% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +41.6% +28.1% 33% 31% -11.6%
≤30d 173 -7.6% -16.4% 32% 29% -21.7%
≤90d 404 -13.6% -21.9% 37% 34% -21.4%
all 419 -13.4% -21.6% 37% 34% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 34% -20.7%
10% -29.1% 31% -28.3%
15% -36.0% 26% -35.2%
20% -42.3% 21% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses157 / 262
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)419 / 419
History coverage92d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 419 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$9 +805%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$42 +3946%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -23%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs GOAL (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Mast Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1102 history records