Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:54:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2B
0x2b68…41b6
weather · 1035 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$106 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$58 · open −$47
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$224
Realized−$58
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses186 / 351
Open positions166
Markets (closed)537 / 1035
History coverage38d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day33.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 166 History 537 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$56
14 days+$115
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Yes 37¢ 99¢ $3 $8 +$5 (+168%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Yes 35¢ 66¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+89%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Yes 21¢ 42¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+102%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Yes 29¢ 97¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+234%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Yes 25¢ 74¢ $2 $4 +$3 (+194%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Yes 35¢ 42¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 28¢ 33¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Yes 18¢ 24¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Yes 28¢ 37¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? Yes 32¢ 35¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Yes 34¢ 44¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? Yes 23¢ 28¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Yes 36¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+177%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Yes 9¢ 24¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+172%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? Yes 42¢ 76¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+80%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Yes 38¢ 40¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +169%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $3 +$5 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$5 +301%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 13 $3 +$5 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$4 +131%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$7 +637%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +301%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$7 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$17 +557%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +137%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 +$2 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$2 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$5 +465%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 +$4 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 +$2 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$2 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$3 +162%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$105
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 217 +37.6% +24.5% 37% 37% -1.0%
≤30d 536 +17.8% +6.6% 35% 34% -14.0%
≤90d 537 +17.6% +6.4% 35% 34% -14.1%
all 537 +17.6% +6.4% 35% 34% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover33.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.4% 34% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -3.8% 34% -22.3%
15% -13.1% 33% -29.8%
20% -21.6% 32% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.09 · official $224.10 (match) · 1470 history records