Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:38:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b62…d553 sports 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$172 (-11%) realized −$166 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate43%16W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day49.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$86
other 8% −$62
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-36.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -30.2% -36.9% 43% 35% -18.6%
≤30d 37 -30.2% -36.9% 43% 35% -18.6%
≤90d 37 -30.2% -36.9% 43% 35% -18.6%
all 37 -30.2% -36.9% 43% 35% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.9% 35% -18.6%
10% ← realistic here -42.9% 30% -26.4%
15% -48.4% 16% -33.5%
20% -53.5% 11% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -63% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$16 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized−$166
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses16 / 21
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage1d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day49.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5) England 63¢ 62¢ $212 $207 −$5 (-2%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-9%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $7 +$15 +197%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $108 +$18 +17%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $189 +$9 +5%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $92 −$92 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $13 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -97%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 26 $7 +$2 +27%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qual Jun 26 $11 −$9 -82%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $23 +$2 +11%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 26 $4 +$3 +57%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 26 $7 +$2 +31%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $1 +$3 +238%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $3 +$2 +44%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $24 +$10 +40%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $192 +$43 +22%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $196 +$3 +2%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $23 −$22 -97%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $24 −$23 -97%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 25 $17 −$17 -97%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 25 $4 −$4 -97%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $24 +$2 +7%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $21 −$6 -30%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 25 $142 −$44 -31%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $65 +$17 +26%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -97%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $3 +$1 +31%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $85 +$60 +71%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $12 −$11 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $24 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $64 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $64 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $64 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Norway 92¢ $92 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $94 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $95 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 89¢ $22 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 84¢ $85 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Yellow Submarine 78¢ $7 8h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qual BUY HULIGANI 74¢ $1 13h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qual BUY Enjoy 48¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 15h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $23 21h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 98¢ $96 21h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 94¢ $95 21h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 69¢ $3 21h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 7¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.31 · official $214.31 (match) · 90 history records