Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:45:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2B 0x2b62…5203 world 146 markets active 0h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$785 (+1%) realized +$828 · open −$43
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate49%69W / 73L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$517per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,040
7 days+$2,089
14 days+$1,915
30 days+$871
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$2,133
finance 34% −$47
crypto 4% −$217
other 2% −$850
politics 2% −$228
sports 2% −$232
tech 0% −$42
economics 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +65.8% +50.0% 86% 86% +20.0%
≤30d 18 +12.6% +1.9% 44% 39% -4.5%
≤90d 106 -11.6% -20.0% 49% 30% -9.0%
all 142 -10.2% -18.8% 49% 30% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 30% -8.7%
10% -26.5% 20% -17.5%
15% -33.6% 11% -25.4%
20% -40.1% 9% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$67 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$1,132
Realized+$828
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses69 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)142 / 146
History coverage191d
Avg bet$517
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $409 $421 +$12 (+3%)
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? Yes 38¢ 32¢ $313 $268 −$45 (-14%)
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? Yes 42¢ 48¢ $208 $235 +$27 (+13%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $245 $208 −$37 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $4,201 +$788 +19%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $159 +$252 +159%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $188 +$273 +145%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $374 −$41 -11%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $723 +$475 +66%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $444 +$280 +63%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $306 +$61 +20%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $124 −$107 -86%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 05 $124 −$18 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 05 $166 −$41 -25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 03 $115 −$8 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $289 −$1 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $571 −$239 -42%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 29 $322 +$23 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $6,021 −$396 -7%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $501 −$489 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $435 +$273 +63%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? May 23 $2,401 −$217 -9%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $168 +$10 +6%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $112 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $175 −$103 -59%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 12 $505 −$50 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? May 07 $1,384 +$56 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $478 +$21 +4%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 05 $445 +$34 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 05 $1,401 +$111 +8%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 05 $385 −$22 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 01 $217 −$217 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 01 $419 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 01 $111 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 01 $31 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 01 $21 −$8 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 01 $315 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 01 $21 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 01 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 30 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 30 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 30 $112 +$13 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 30 $225 −$97 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 30 $122 −$14 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 30 $111 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 30 $40 +$22 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 30 $112 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 30 $29 −$23 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 30 $113 +$18 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 30 $119 +$36 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 30 $21 −$16 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 30 $111 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 30 $42 +$7 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $44 3m
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $70 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $40 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $100 1h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 2h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 2h
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $117 4h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $44 9h
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $206 9h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $57 9h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $100 9h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 85¢ $199 19h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 79¢ $532 23h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 75¢ $196 23h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 73¢ $146 25h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 72¢ $144 25h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 71¢ $142 25h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $206 25h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 28h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $128 29h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 67¢ $3 29h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 67¢ $3 29h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 67¢ $3 29h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 67¢ $3 29h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 67¢ $3 29h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 67¢ $3 29h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 67¢ $3 29h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 67¢ $3 29h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 67¢ $3 29h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 67¢ $3 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,132.36 · official $1,179.17 · 1159 history records