Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:18:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b61…a7fa crypto 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$31 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%18W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 36% +$33
sports 28% −$307
other 26% +$276
world 10% +$51
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -7.9% -16.6% 49% 41% -7.5%
≤30d 37 -7.9% -16.6% 49% 41% -7.5%
≤90d 37 -7.9% -16.6% 49% 41% -7.5%
all 37 -7.9% -16.6% 49% 41% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 41% -7.5%
10% -24.6% 35% -16.3%
15% -31.9% 24% -24.4%
20% -38.6% 22% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$37 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses18 / 19
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage5d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 74¢ 62¢ $103 $87 −$17 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$31 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $203 +$55 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $76 +$22 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $220 +$81 +37%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $63 −$62 -99%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 20 $68 −$18 -27%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $131 −$119 -90%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $366 −$235 -64%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $160 −$3 -2%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $215 +$149 +69%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $183 +$31 +17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 20 $6 −$3 -50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $204 +$126 +62%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $99 −$31 -31%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $370 +$109 +29%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +65%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 17 $2 $0 -7%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +160%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$54 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$47 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$11 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$57 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$26 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 99¢ $300 2h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 63¢ $50 14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 47¢ $50 15h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 67¢ $13 15h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Sweden 5¢ $13 16h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 50¢ $131 16h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Sweden 25¢ $131 17h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 67¢ $158 17h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? SELL No 90¢ $158 17h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY No 91¢ $160 17h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 69¢ $209 19h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 29h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 72¢ $23 29h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 72¢ $31 29h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 72¢ $154 29h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 72¢ $8 29h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 34h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $183 36h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $147 36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $330 37h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $68 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.55 · official $86.55 (match) · 87 history records