Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:49:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2B 0x2b5f…c9c7 sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$84 (+8%) realized +$47 · open +$37
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$108
14 days+$108
30 days+$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$95
other 26% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +22.7% +11.0% 50% 50% +2.4%
≤30d 22 +22.7% +11.0% 50% 50% +2.4%
≤90d 22 +22.7% +11.0% 50% 50% +2.4%
all 22 +22.7% +11.0% 50% 50% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.0% 50% +2.4%
10% +0.4% 50% -7.4%
15% -9.3% 50% -16.3%
20% -18.2% 50% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$34 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$171
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions4
Markets (closed)22 / 30
History coverage9d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? Yes 11¢ 24¢ $25 $56 +$31 (+123%)
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 40¢ $34 $46 +$12 (+36%)
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Canada 72¢ 66¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $49 +$47 +97%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $23 +$66 +291%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $24 −$2 -7%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $23 +$40 +172%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $31 −$30 -99%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 27 $36 −$11 -31%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $41 +$70 +172%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $19 +$22 +114%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $40 −$39 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: Both Jun 26 $33 +$31 +93%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $35 +$24 +69%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $33 −$32 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $29 +$18 +62%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $38 +$30 +79%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $76 −$75 -98%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $61 −$60 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $64 +$62 +97%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $39 +$74 +189%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 72¢ $50 1h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $35 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $96 15h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $49 16h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $23 19h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 33¢ $23 19h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score AND Colombia vs. Portugal: BUY 51¢ $40 20h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $24 20h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 20h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 21h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? BUY Yes 36¢ $14 21h
England leading at halftime? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY $5 21h
England leading at halftime? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY $5 21h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals SELL Yes 21¢ $25 21h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? BUY Yes 36¢ $9 21h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 22h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $36 24h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $35 24h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $41 40h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $41 40h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $19 42h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $41 47h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $40 47h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: Both BUY 51¢ $33 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $33 2d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $35 2d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st BUY 36¢ $47 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.03 · official $163.58 · 48 history records