Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:24:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2B 0x2b5f…7e3d crypto 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate27%17W / 45L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$364per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$6
sports 2% $0
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 43 +13.9% +3.1% 28% 12% -9.5%
all 62 +12.9% +2.1% 27% 11% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.1% 11% -9.5%
10% -7.6% 11% -18.2%
15% -16.6% 11% -26.1%
20% -24.7% 11% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×10.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.06 per $1 lost it wins $4.06
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses17 / 45
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage119d
Avg bet$364
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $124 $124 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $124 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $429 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? Jun 03 $429 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $429 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $429 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? May 31 $429 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? May 30 $428 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 29 $428 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? May 28 $429 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 26 $428 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 25 $428 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? May 24 $428 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 21 $428 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $428 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19? May 19 $429 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 18 $429 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 8? May 08 $429 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? May 05 $430 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $430 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 on April 20? Apr 21 $430 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 19? Apr 19 $430 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $430 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,650 on April 15? Apr 16 $430 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 15? Apr 15 $430 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 on April 14? Apr 15 $430 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $430 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks make the NHL Playoffs? Apr 14 $13 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,950 on April 13? Apr 14 $415 $0 +0%
Will "Arirang - BTS" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of Apr Apr 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $413 $0 -0%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season? Apr 13 $407 $0 -0%
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seat Apr 12 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on April 11? Apr 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $432 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $432 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $433 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $433 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $433 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $433 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 31? Mar 31 $433 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 29? Mar 29 $433 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 28? Mar 28 $423 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $423 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $423 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $423 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $423 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $124 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $124 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $124 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $124 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $124 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? SELL Yes 100¢ $429 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $429 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? SELL Yes 100¢ $428 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $429 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? SELL Yes 100¢ $429 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $429 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? SELL Yes 100¢ $429 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $429 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $429 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $429 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $429 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $428 28d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? SELL Yes 100¢ $428 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $428 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $428 30d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $429 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $429 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $428 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $428 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $428 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $428 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $428 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $428 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $428 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $428 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.26 · official $124.04 · 130 history records