Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:12:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b5e…0ff5 world 10 markets active 11d ago coverage 144d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8 (-65%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip
Net edge-80%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%1W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 144d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% −$6
other 25% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-80.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 -78.1% -80.2% 11% 11% -78.4%
≤90d 9 -78.1% -80.2% 11% 11% -78.4%
all 9 -78.1% -80.2% 11% 11% -78.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -80.2% 11% -78.4%
10% -82.1% 11% -80.5%
15% -83.8% 0% -82.4%
20% -85.4% 0% -84.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -76% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -78% · $-wt -76% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses1 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage144d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -59%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -35%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 10d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 14d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $1 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $1 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $1 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $1 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $1 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $1 60d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $1 60d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 77d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $1 138d
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31? BUY No 12¢ $1 154d
Will the US strike Somalia next? BUY No 0¢ $1 154d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.79 · official $0.79 (match) · 18 history records