Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:44:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2B 0x2b5a…2e45 other 84 markets active 0h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,383 (+5%) realized +$1,784 · open −$401
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate47%33W / 37L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$4,982now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$38
14 days−$50
30 days+$475
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$2,326
politics 23% +$3,340
finance 21% +$802
world 18% −$977
economics 5% +$618
sports 0% +$22
tech 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +4.7% -5.3% 50% 50% -14.5%
≤30d 5 +28.2% +16.0% 60% 40% +20.4%
≤90d 29 -46.2% -51.3% 31% 24% -15.2%
all 70 -11.1% -19.6% 47% 34% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 34% -1.0%
10% -27.3% 26% -10.5%
15% -34.3% 19% -19.1%
20% -40.7% 16% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$229 vs −$154 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$4,982
Realized+$1,784
Unrealized−$401
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses33 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions14
Markets (closed)70 / 84
History coverage153d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 37¢ 42¢ $1,782 $1,982 +$200 (+11%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 67¢ 98¢ $536 $787 +$251 (+47%)
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? Yes 78¢ 100¢ $400 $511 +$111 (+28%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Yes 81¢ 78¢ $486 $471 −$15 (-3%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 65¢ 93¢ $300 $432 +$132 (+44%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 45¢ 48¢ $361 $393 +$32 (+9%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $200 $172 −$28 (-14%)
Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? No 75¢ 90¢ $96 $115 +$19 (+20%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? No 58¢ 77¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+32%)
Weed rescheduled by June 30? Yes 55¢ 1¢ $1,104 $20 −$1,084 (-98%)
Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? No 85¢ 96¢ $14 $15 +$2 (+13%)
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? Yes 37¢ 33¢ $13 $11 −$1 (-12%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $21 $4 −$17 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $497 −$96 -19%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $202 +$58 +29%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $100 −$11 -11%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 27 $374 +$498 +133%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 27 $263 +$26 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 17 $231 +$69 +30%
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2026? May 12 $7 $0 -6%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $528 −$514 -97%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 12 $205 −$199 -97%
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting? Apr 30 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $150 +$29 +19%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? Apr 23 $95 −$95 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $500 +$485 +97%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president Apr 23 $798 −$798 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $44 −$44 -100%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 Apr 17 $61 −$61 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026? Apr 17 $41 +$4 +10%
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? Apr 16 $151 −$151 -100%
Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting? Apr 16 $115 −$115 -100%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? Apr 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? Apr 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $173 −$173 -100%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Robinhood launches prediction market through MIAXdx by March 31? Apr 11 $242 −$242 -100%
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? Apr 11 $300 −$300 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? Apr 11 $148 −$148 -100%
Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) be added to the S&P 500 by March 3 Apr 02 $2,084 +$377 +18%
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 202 Apr 02 $2,214 +$1,158 +52%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 16 $1,864 +$2,082 +112%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 7, 2026? Mar 09 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Vertiv Holdings (VRT) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? Mar 09 $761 −$761 -100%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? Mar 09 $738 −$738 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Mar 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Italy win? Mar 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 3, 2026? Mar 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Mar 07 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Mar 07 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Mar 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility? Mar 07 $472 −$472 -100%
Will Affirm Holdings (AFRM) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? Mar 06 $154 +$23 +15%
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? Mar 05 $200 +$20 +10%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 05 $100 +$22 +22%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 03 $300 −$19 -6%
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility? Mar 02 $50 $0 +0%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? Mar 02 $62 −$9 -15%
DeepSeek V4 released by February 28? Mar 02 $16 +$25 +158%
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? Feb 27 $20 +$44 +218%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 26 $400 +$11 +3%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Feb 26 $63 +$23 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 33¢ $505 0m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 35¢ $56 0m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 35¢ $43 0m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 0m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $490 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 43¢ $22 2h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 43¢ $278 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 39¢ $29 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 38¢ $841 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 39¢ $32 2h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $310 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $382 2d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 46¢ $272 2d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 56¢ $62 2d
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership BUY No 53¢ $8 3d
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $13 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 6d
Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership elect BUY No 75¢ $97 6d
Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership el BUY No 85¢ $14 6d
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership BUY No 63¢ $12 6d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 65¢ $304 6d
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 77¢ $202 6d
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? BUY Yes 78¢ $404 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 39¢ $89 9d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 44¢ $100 9d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 28¢ $206 12d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 68¢ $873 25d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 69¢ $289 25d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $22 26d
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $7 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,982.29 · official $4,982.29 (match) · 316 history records