Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:58:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2B
0x2b59…9db6
other · 756 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$6,235 -31%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,495 · open −$1,260
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,094
Realized−$4,495
Unrealized−$1,260
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses30 / 219
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions500
Markets (closed)249 / 756
History coverage2d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1850.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%
Chart Positions 500 History 249 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,495
7 days−$4,495
14 days−$4,495
30 days−$4,495
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 36 and 39 inclusive? Yes 42¢ 55¢ $115 $149 +$34 (+30%)
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes 45¢ 43¢ $156 $148 −$8 (-5%)
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? Yes 23¢ 35¢ $79 $120 +$42 (+53%)
Will Viking FK win on 2026-05-30? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $59 $61 +$2 (+4%)
Will Lillestrøm SK win on 2026-05-30? Yes 19¢ 36¢ $24 $44 +$21 (+87%)
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-22? Yes 38¢ 53¢ $26 $37 +$10 (+39%)
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-15? Yes 15¢ 42¢ $10 $29 +$18 (+177%)
Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 32 and 35 inclusive? Yes 1¢ 10¢ $3 $28 +$24 (+761%)
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $29 $27 −$2 (-8%)
Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be fewer than 24? Yes 1¢ 10¢ $2 $27 +$25 (+1258%)
Will FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Hamarkameratene end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 37¢ $12 $26 +$13 (+106%)
Will Hamarkameratene win on 2026-03-22? Yes 19¢ 36¢ $13 $24 +$11 (+87%)
Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be 44 or more? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $21 $24 +$3 (+17%)
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-03-07? Yes 35¢ 46¢ $19 $24 +$6 (+31%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 5–10%? Yes 90¢ 93¢ $23 $23 +$1 (+3%)
Will New York City FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 24¢ 48¢ $12 $23 +$11 (+95%)
Will New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 40¢ $14 $21 +$7 (+50%)
Will Club Independiente Petrolero vs. CDOriente Petrolero end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 44¢ $13 $21 +$8 (+63%)
Will Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 30¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+103%)
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 51¢ $7 $21 +$14 (+200%)
Will FC Universitario win on 2026-06-19? Yes 28¢ 44¢ $13 $20 +$7 (+55%)
SC Recife to score first vs. São Bernardo FC? Yes 44¢ 46¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will CDOriente Petrolero win on 2026-06-13? Yes 28¢ 41¢ $13 $20 +$6 (+46%)
Will Avaí FC win on 2026-06-15? Yes 15¢ 28¢ $10 $20 +$9 (+90%)
Will FC Universitario vs. Club Guabirá end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 42¢ $7 $19 +$12 (+177%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $111 −$111 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $529 −$528 -100%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $18 −$18 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 92°F or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -80%
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $14 −$9 -66%
Will Nilvan Ferreira win the Governor of Paraíba election? Jun 12 $32 −$31 -100%
Will Flávio Lúcio win the Governor of Paraíba election? Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Efraim Filho win the Governor of Paraíba election? Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Will United States record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Iran record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $36 −$36 -99%
Will Canada record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $36 −$36 -99%
Will Senegal record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $15 −$14 -94%
Will Uzbekistan record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 12 $15 −$14 -94%
Will Iraq record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -96%
Will Egypt record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Ecuador record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Qatar record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $15 −$14 -94%
Will Uruguay record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $25 −$24 -97%
Will France record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $33 −$25 -74%
Will Japan record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Paraguay record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $59 −$59 -99%
Will Colombia record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $70 −$70 -100%
Will South Korea record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 12 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Norway record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Netherlands record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 12 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Jordan record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $63 −$63 -99%
Will Morocco record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $17 −$16 -94%
Will Australia record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $76 −$76 -100%
Will New Zealand record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 12 $63 −$63 -99%
Will Belgium record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $44 −$42 -96%
Will Spain record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Germany record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Portugal record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $48 −$47 -99%
Will OC Safi vs. Kawkab AC end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 73°F or below on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -87%
Will White House post 80-99 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 53% −$3,099
sports 14% −$109
tech 10% −$836
weather 7% −$92
world 5% −$854
finance 5% −$316
politics 3% −$291
culture 1% −$101
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY No 100¢ $304 5m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 4¢ $13 5m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 96¢ $292 5m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 96¢ $96 5m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 4¢ $4 5m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY No 100¢ $100 5m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 5¢ $0 6m
Will Adriano Silva win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7m
Will Gelson Merisio win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will Décio Lima win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $16 9m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 73¢ $12 9m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $15 9m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $15 9m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 42¢ $7 9m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 92¢ $15 9m
Will Décio Lima win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9m
Will Afrânio Boppré win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9m
Will Adriano Silva win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 9m
Will Gelson Merisio win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 9m
Will João Rodrigues win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 9m
Will Marcelo Brigadeiro win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? BUY No 95¢ $19 9m
Will Marcos Vieira win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? BUY No 81¢ $16 9m
Will Jorginho Mello win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? BUY No 20¢ $4 9m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-66.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 249 -62.4% -66.0% 12% 10% -92.7%
≤30d 249 -62.4% -66.0% 12% 10% -92.7%
≤90d 249 -62.4% -66.0% 12% 10% -92.7%
all 249 -62.4% -66.0% 12% 10% -92.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1850.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -66.0% 10% -92.7%
10% ← realistic here -69.3% 8% -93.4%
15% -72.2% 5% -94.0%
20% -75.0% 4% -94.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,093.92 · official $3,091.20 (match) · 3500 history records