Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b58…ec75 crypto 1203 markets active 2d ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (139 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,038 (-99%) realized −$3,038 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%636W / 567L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day139.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (139 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 167 -17.7% -25.6% 40% 40% -23.2%
≤30d 1203 -7.2% -16.0% 53% 51% -10.7%
≤90d 1203 -7.2% -16.0% 53% 51% -10.7%
all 1203 -7.2% -16.0% 53% 51% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover139.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 51% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 48% -19.2%
15% -31.4% 41% -27.0%
20% -38.1% 28% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,038
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses636 / 567
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1203 / 1203
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day139.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1203 Trades
no open positions (337 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$8 +359%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records