Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:36:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

2B 0x2b57…51f1 crypto 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$91 (-21%) realized −$48 · open −$43

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate67%4W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$61per market

Trades / day3.8pace

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-15.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-6.6%	-15.5%	67%	50%	-32.4%
≤30d	6	-6.6%	-15.5%	67%	50%	-32.4%
≤90d	6	-6.6%	-15.5%	67%	50%	-32.4%
all	6	-6.6%	-15.5%	67%	50%	-32.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-15.5%	50%	-32.4%
10%	-23.6%	33%	-38.9%
15%	-31.0%	33%	-44.8%
20%	-37.7%	17%	-50.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 62% · top 2 91% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -25% too few recent

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$55 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.28 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$67

Realized−$48

Unrealized−$43

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses4 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage3d

Avg bet$61

Trades / day3.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	68¢	42¢	$110	$67	−$43 (-39%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$101	+$19	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Jun 23	$4	−$4	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Jun 23	$2	+$1	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Jun 23	$2	+$2	+86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Jun 23	$107	−$107	-100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	Jun 21	$99	+$9	+9%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	45m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	69¢	$101	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	82¢	$120	3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	68¢	$101	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$2	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	BUY Down	62¢	$2	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	SELL Down	95¢	$3	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$2	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$2	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	BUY Up	7¢	$103	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$3	7h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	SELL Yes	98¢	$109	2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	BUY Yes	89¢	$99	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.30 · official $67.30 (match) · 16 history records