Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:33:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2B 0x2b53…4722 sports 312 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$196 (+5%) realized +$197 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%162W / 143L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$9
14 days+$72
30 days+$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$34
other 10% +$86
crypto 0% −$15
world 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -4.8% -13.8% 54% 54% -7.8%
≤30d 124 +9.9% -0.6% 55% 55% +2.1%
≤90d 305 +1.3% -8.3% 53% 51% -6.4%
all 305 +1.3% -8.3% 53% 51% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 51% -6.4%
10% -17.1% 50% -15.4%
15% -25.1% 48% -23.6%
20% -32.5% 42% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized+$197
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses162 / 143
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions7
Markets (closed)305 / 312
History coverage88d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 305 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 63¢ 64¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 52¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 121 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $40 +$12 +30%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $15 +$11 +70%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $15 +$12 +76%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 +$9 +90%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $25 +$21 +83%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $18 −$18 -99%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $15 −$8 -55%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $15 −$15 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $32 +$7 +22%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$14 +48%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $15 +$11 +70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $26 +$13 +48%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 +$11 +109%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $5 +$8 +158%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$1 -8%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$9 +46%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$7 +48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $25 +$16 +62%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $15 +$15 +101%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $15 +$15 +97%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$14 +134%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$21 +104%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$14 +139%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 +$18 +119%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$7 +146%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $11 +$11 +97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$13 +123%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$14 +134%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $11 +$2 +14%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$12 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $10 28m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $5 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $20 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $52 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $26 11h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $20 14h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 59¢ $19 14h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $15 19h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $20 19h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $15 19h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $15 19h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 43h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 43h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $18 43h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $25 43h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 20¢ $7 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $15 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $15 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 3d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 73¢ $22 3d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 46¢ $9 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $26 3d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $15 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $26 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.21 · official $134.40 (match) · 552 history records