Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:27:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b51…6d16 crypto 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (114 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$290 (-22%) realized −$290 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%24W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day114.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$290
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (114 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -24.4% -31.6% 43% 38% -29.7%
≤30d 56 -24.4% -31.6% 43% 38% -29.7%
≤90d 56 -24.4% -31.6% 43% 38% -29.7%
all 56 -24.4% -31.6% 43% 38% -29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover114.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.6% 38% -29.7%
10% ← realistic here -38.1% 30% -36.4%
15% -44.1% 23% -42.6%
20% -49.6% 20% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$21 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$290
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses24 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day114.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 29 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 29 $72 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$17 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 29 $12 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 29 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $37 −$37 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$19 +75%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$8 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$32 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$19 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $51 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +57%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 29 $37 −$37 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$9 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $58 +$111 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 29 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$20 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$16 +61%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 29 $16 +$45 +286%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$36 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 29 $64 −$60 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 29 $7 −$5 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 29 $37 −$10 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 29 $27 −$3 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 158 history records