Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:04:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2B
0x2b51…e165
sports · 569 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$17,442 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$55,138 · open +$14,933
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$44,003
Realized−$55,138
Unrealized+$14,933
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses302 / 250
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$3,793
Open positions17
Markets (closed)552 / 569
History coverage400d
Avg bet$1,602
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 17 History 552 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,073
7 days+$946
14 days+$3,559
30 days−$1,926
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 8¢ 81¢ $1,522 $16,120 +$14,598 (+959%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 54¢ 70¢ $4,130 $5,359 +$1,230 (+30%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $4,621 $5,016 +$395 (+9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $4,800 $4,815 +$15 (+0%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 61¢ 42¢ $4,692 $3,270 −$1,422 (-30%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $2,807 $3,144 +$337 (+12%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $1,730 $1,725 −$5 (-0%)
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1,557 $1,457 −$100 (-6%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Türkiye 33¢ 32¢ $660 $630 −$30 (-5%)
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $583 $571 −$12 (-2%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ 58¢ $354 $351 −$3 (-1%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $351 $351 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $306 $303 −$3 (-1%)
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Türkiye 14¢ 14¢ $280 $270 −$10 (-4%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $264 $261 −$3 (-1%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $284 $232 −$52 (-18%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $130 $128 −$2 (-2%)
Ravens vs. Chiefs Ravens 59¢ 0¢ $1,760 $0 −$1,760 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Under 22¢ 0¢ $1,955 $0 −$1,955 (-100%)
Chiefs vs. Broncos Chiefs 67¢ 0¢ $1,005 $0 −$1,005 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Wizards Raptors 72¢ 0¢ $1,080 $0 −$1,080 (-100%)
Hornets vs. Pacers Hornets 55¢ 0¢ $550 $0 −$550 (-100%)
Celtics vs. Trail Blazers Celtics 70¢ 0¢ $2,100 $0 −$2,100 (-100%)
Bulls vs. Hornets Bulls 58¢ 0¢ $870 $0 −$870 (-100%)
Vikings vs. Chargers Vikings 39¢ 0¢ $156 $0 −$156 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $254 +$246 +97%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $1,994 +$1,571 +79%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $1,769 +$416 +24%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $249 −$245 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $250 +$350 +140%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $269 −$265 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 09 $11,172 −$151 -1%
Will SpaceX raise between $60B and $70B in its IPO? Jun 08 $13 −$13 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 08 $2,352 −$484 -21%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 07 $487 −$480 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,387 +$2,613 +188%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $83,799 −$1,133 -1%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $3,378 −$1,800 -53%
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Spurs Total Games O/U 5.5 May 24 $534 −$523 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $387 −$380 -98%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $814 −$800 -98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 23 $2,809 −$2,793 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 22 $418 +$2,367 +566%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $5,471 −$3,001 -55%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 21 $6,332 +$2,657 +42%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 19 $553 −$545 -99%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 17 $6,569 −$741 -11%
NBA Playoffs: Spurs vs. Timberwolves Total Games O/U 5.5 May 16 $1,403 +$1,205 +86%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 13 $1,358 −$1,321 -97%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 13 $627 −$620 -99%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 11 $542 −$533 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 09 $249 −$245 -98%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 08 $1,351 +$1,952 +144%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $3,396 −$3,301 -97%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $1,062 −$1,031 -97%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $989 −$978 -99%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $245 −$237 -97%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $544 −$529 -97%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Knicks vs. Hawks May 02 $4,526 +$3,955 +87%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $3,759 −$2,822 -75%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 29 $1,768 +$494 +28%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 18 $3,184 −$3,184 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 18 $4,580 −$2,446 -53%
Heat vs. Pistons Jan 01 $5,184 −$5,184 -100%
Hawks vs. Thunder Jan 01 $900 +$100 +11%
Trail Blazers vs. Thunder Jan 01 $890 +$110 +12%
Timberwolves vs. Hawks Dec 31 $1,300 −$1,300 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Dec 31 $900 −$900 -100%
Celtics vs. Jazz Dec 31 $205 −$205 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Bulls Dec 30 $1,380 +$620 +45%
Cavaliers vs. Spurs Dec 29 $1,140 −$1,140 -100%
Nuggets vs. Heat Dec 29 $1,120 −$1,120 -100%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 29 $1,268 −$1,268 -100%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 29 $6,264 −$6,264 -100%
76ers vs. Thunder Dec 29 $880 +$120 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 73% −$49,630
other 22% +$4,353
tech 2% +$1,383
world 1% +$2,916
politics 1% −$598
crypto 0% +$1,371
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 1h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $319 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $310 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $358 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $133 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $268 1h
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 14¢ $287 1h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 33¢ $673 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,175 1h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $249 37h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $577 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $254 47h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $269 47h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $250 47h
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 23¢ $246 4d
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $65 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 47¢ $265 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 45¢ $1,090 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 83¢ $11,021 4d
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $94 5d
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $197 5d
Will SpaceX raise between $60B and $70B in its IPO? BUY Yes 2¢ $13 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 35¢ $465 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 36¢ $365 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 37¢ $934 5d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $487 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 22¢ $840 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 83¢ $7,830 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 83¢ $3,343 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 40¢ $82 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -16.2% -24.2% 40% 40% -4.0%
≤30d 23 -0.8% -10.3% 35% 35% -9.3%
≤90d 36 -21.1% -28.6% 31% 31% -14.8%
all 552 -5.0% -14.1% 55% 53% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 53% -15.4%
10% -22.3% 45% -23.5%
15% -29.8% 35% -30.9%
20% -36.7% 25% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44,003.04 · official $44,003.04 (match) · 3500 history records