Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:24:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
2B 0x2b4f…057b sports 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 416d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$112 (+5%) realized +$155 · open −$43
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%17W / 17L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$724now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$235
7 days+$233
14 days+$233
30 days+$233
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$183
sports 29% +$4
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +21.7% +10.1% 54% 50% +29.3%
≤30d 24 +21.7% +10.1% 54% 50% +29.3%
≤90d 24 +21.7% +10.1% 54% 50% +29.3%
all 34 +12.3% +1.6% 50% 44% +26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 44% +26.5%
10% -8.1% 41% +14.4%
15% -17.0% 41% +3.3%
20% -25.1% 32% -6.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$26 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

416d coverage
Net worth$724
Realized+$155
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses17 / 17
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)34 / 39
History coverage416d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $567 $456 −$111 (-20%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 40¢ 69¢ $150 $255 +$105 (+70%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $13 −$37 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $42 −$14 -33%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $103 +$2 +2%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $51 +$9 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $122 +$181 +148%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$7 +46%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 24 $21 +$89 +436%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $184 −$97 -53%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $152 +$175 +115%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $42 −$41 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $197 −$173 -88%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 +$38 +250%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $42 +$104 +245%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $11 +$8 +73%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$4 -78%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 +$3 +38%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $23 +$14 +61%
Bautista vs. Mix Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Pena vs. Harrison Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Holobaugh vs. Leavitt Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$8 +42%
Luque vs. Holland Jun 08 $8 +$5 +61%
Will PSG win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 08 $2 $0 -0%
Bellato vs. Craig Jun 08 $5 $0 +4%
Stoltzfus vs. Ruziboev May 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Santos vs. Lisboa May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Burns vs. Morales May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Yusuff vs. Santos May 19 $4 +$3 +67%
Erosa vs. Costa May 17 $1 $0 -12%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-05-07? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena May 17 $10 +$18 +178%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 40¢ $153 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes $4 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $21 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $101 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $103 3h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 65¢ $60 3h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 60¢ $24 5h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $53 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 20¢ $51 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 48¢ $51 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 29h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $28 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 2d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes $31 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $49 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $123 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 3d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $31 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes $19 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $723.59 · official $724.64 (match) · 91 history records